I have said here that I believe Donald Trump is gonna be a one term President…..
My sons have doubts on that….
Less than a year out from Election Day there are several reasons why I stand by my view….
- Trump is more unpopular than any President in recent history….
- All of the first tier Democrats vying for the nomination beat Trump in head to head polling now…
- Joe Biden beats him 11 of the 13 Real Clear Politics state polls…
- Joe Biden beats him by about 10% points head to head…Others less so…
- Trump is about to go on trial for several things that we ALL KNOW he did wrong…
- Trump has solid support from fellow Republicans, who admit he does things they don’t like…
- The American economy is said to be strong, but a large among of people do NOT believe that…
- .Unlike the last time?…We NOW KNOW who and what Donald Trump is…
Those are my reasons…
Here’s so more….
Virtually all the reputable national polls show the president is in serious trouble, and I’m not just referring to his job approval numbers in the low-to-mid 40s.
Apart from Emerson College polls showing a virtual dead heat between Trump and Warren, most national surveys show Warren leading the president by 5 to 8 points.
Those same polls show Biden leading Trump by 10 to 12 points.
Even Sanders, who is outside the political mainstream, leads Trump by 6 to 9 points in most surveys (again excluding Emerson, which always seems to be an outlier).
There are a few polls showing trial heats of Trump-Buttigieg, but the few reputable surveys suggest anything from an even race to Buttigieg up by a half-dozen points.
Of course, we all have discounted national polls because of what happened three years ago. But if the Democratic nominee wins not by 2 points but by 6 or 8, it would be difficult for Trump to win at least 270 electoral votes.
Democratic nervousness seems to stem primarily from a handful of polls in a few crucial states, including the three key Great Lakes states that Clinton lost: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (They seem to ignore Arizona and Florida, two interesting states that offer Democrats serious opportunities next year.)
There are relatively few highly regarded polls in these and other swing states, and that undoubtedly has added to Democratic anxiety.
So has a series of New York Times/Siena College polls showing close races for various challengers to Trump.
But again, we are talking about a handful of polls in states that are not early in the nominating process.
In other words, states where swing voters have not really focused on the candidates.
The state polls show mixed results, some showing Trump ahead and others suggesting that Biden, at least, has a narrow but clear general election advantage.
For now, there is simply no empirical reason to believe that Trump will win next year.
In fact, the evidence is not compelling in either direction. A strong Democratic turnout, including votes from people who voted third party the last time or skipped the presidential race entirely, would put the president in a substantial electoral hole.
On the other hand, poor minority turnout would create a challenging environment for the eventual Democratic nominee.
For the moment, all we can safely say is that polls continue to confirm that Trump is in deep trouble, with a job approval rating that no incumbent president seeking reelection would want….