In the recent polling the South bend, Indiana Democratic Mayor is now rested in 4th place ….
He’s even higher in one Recent Iowa poll…
Here’s some comment’s from FiveThirtyEight on his gains….
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): After the fourth Democratic debate in October, Pete Buttigieg hit 13 percent in a Suffolk/USA Today Iowa poll, coming in third, while Amy Klobuchar got her second qualifying poll for the November debate. And a FiveThirtyEight average of polls in Iowa since August actually showed Buttigieg had been overperforming there and in New Hampshire even before the fourth debate. So what do we make of this new post-debate narrative that maybe this isn’t just a two-candidate race, and there’s more potential for candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar to break out of the lower tiers of candidates. Do folks buy this? Are we headed for another Buttigieg surge?
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): I think the narrative is mostly bullshit. Just want to get that on the record nice and early.
So why is it b.s.?
natesilver: Like, it’s possible he’ll surge, and I certainly think he had a good debate, and he’s probably gained a point or so, which isn’t nothing! But to say there’s been a big Buttigieg surge is so far from reality that, if you simply glance at a table of polls, it almost feels like gaslighting. He’s maybe gained a point or so in national polls.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): It’s definitely possible that the media wanted something new to talk about for the 2020 Democratic primary, and this gives them an opportunity to do that.
sarahf: But Nate, I don’t think anyone is going to argue that this is a bigsurge — or at least I’m not. But I do think his standing in Iowa or New Hampshire is much higher than what you would anticipate given where he is in the national polls.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, I found that Buttigieg was polling at about 9 percent in Iowa before the September debate and then at 11 percent after that debate. There haven’t been enough polls to see whether he’s really crept up a little bit more after the October debate, but it’s definitely possible.
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natesilver: But his 13 percent in that USA Today/Suffolk poll is actually very typical of how he’s already been polling in Iowa. He’s had a lot of polls, both now and during his previous peak in the late spring/early summer, where he polled above 15 percent, in fact.
sarahf: Right, but how should we interpret his higher standing in Iowa or New Hampshire?
Is that meaningful at this point?
natesilver: He’s a good candidate for those states because (1) They’re really white, and his supporters are really white; (2) He’s got enough money to build out a good ground game; (3) He’s got a regional advantage in Iowa by being one of the few Midwsterners in the race.
So I take his chances in Iowa pretty seriously! I just don’t think anything much has changed about them over the past week.