In a repeat of another recent poll Elizabeth Warren is 2% points ahead of Joe Biden in a poll that has MOE of more than 4%….
They are actually tied I’d say….
But Warren IS gaining in polling while Biden is not….
Sanders is beginning to poll firmly in 3rd place….
Warren SHOULD be ahead of Biden in her back yard….
(The pollster’s ran different questions and got Biden. ahead sometime’s and Warren ahead in others)…
“Warren continues to look stronger with every new poll. She seems to be picking up support across the spectrum with gains coming at the expense of both Biden and Sanders,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Warren has improved her standing among self-described liberals by 28 points since May (now at 39%), while Sanders has dropped by 13 points (16% now) and Biden has dropped by 7 points (16% now). Warren has also increased her share among moderates and conservatives by 11 points (now at 18%), while Biden has declined by 15 points (30% now) and Sanders is off by just one point (9% now).
It is important to keep in mind that the race is still very much in flux. Monmouth analysts ran a variety of different likely voter models in addition to the benchmark reported in this release. A model that increases the share of lower propensity voters shows Biden with 27% support, Warren with 25%, Sanders with 14% and Buttigieg with 9%. A model that gives more weight to traditional primary voters shows Warren with 29% support, Biden with 24%, Buttigieg with 11%, and Sanders with 10%.
Most New Hampshire Democratic primary voters (61%) say if they had to choose they would select a candidate who they don’t agree with on most issues but would be stronger against President Donald Trump in the general election….
About half of all likely voters (47%) say their current candidate choice is the one they agree with the most and who also has the best chance against Trump. Among this group of voters, 35% back Biden and 34% back Warren, while another 15% support Sanders and 5% support Buttigieg….