That’s the story about 17 months out from Election Day….
Joe Biden continues to be the ‘electability’ candidate for Democrats and the one Republicans should be worried about….
Former Vice President Joseph Biden leads President Donald Trump 50 – 42 percent in the critical swing state of Ohio, the only leading Democratic candidate to top the Republican incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The other leading Democratic contenders each are locked in a dead heat with President Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:
- 46 percent for Trump to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 45 percent;
- Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
- 44 – 44 percent between Trump and California Sen. Kamala Harris;
- 44 – 44 percent between Trump and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg;
- 44 percent for Trump to 43 percent for New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.
Women, black voters and independent voters give Biden his lead in the matchup with Trump. Biden leads 53 – 40 percent among women, as men are split with 46 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump. White voters are divided, with 48 percent for Trump and 45 percent for Biden. Black voters go Democratic 84 – 8 percent.
Independent voters go to Biden 55 – 32 percent. Republicans back Trump 86 – 10 percent as Biden leads 96 – 2 percent among Democrats….
image..msn.com
This something to keep our eyes on….
Biden keeping a lead above the MOE here is REAL BAD news for Trump and Republicans….
Pushback on this poll….
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
The exits put Trump approval in Ohio at 53/46.
The GOP won the US House vote and the governorship. And polls generally underestimated the GOP there in ’16 and ’18.
So it is hard for me to just take this poll at face value-Trump at 43/52–and run with it
Dave Weigel
@daveweigel
Polling also lowballed the eventual GOP vote in Ohio last year. Didn’t get as much attention as Gillum/Abrams, but Cordray looked like he was winning until the polls closed.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Ehh, Morning Consult, which has much larger sample sizes, also shows Trump underperforming, or at least performing mediocrely, in the Midwestern swing states, including being -4 in Ohio and -8 in Iowa. (link: https://53eig.ht/2VHMnqa) 53eig.ht/2VHMnqa
(1) While Joe Biden does seem from this poll to do significantly better than Donald Trump, there’s no point in comparing the next 4 candidates (Sanders, Warren, Harris & Buttigieg) against each other since they seem to poll just about the same as Trump — in other words (supposing the Q poll to be an accurate indicator of how Ohioans think they will vote 16 months from now), a countless host of foreseeable and unforeseeable contingencies could tip the balance either way.
(2) Ohio almost always votes the same way as the Electoral College (but not necessarily the national popular vote). The four exceptions has all been votes for Republican losers rather than Democratic losers (usually in very tight elections) —, the most recent being a vote for Richard Nixon in 1960 and one for Thomas Dewey in 1944 (though not 1948); the other two were votes against the Democratic winner, Grover Cleveland (ironically), in 1880 & 1888.
In other words, while it is at least theoretically possible for a Democrat to win the White House while losing Ohio, past history suggests that it would be incredibly difficult to do so.. (No law is immutable, of course: West Virginia flipped in 2000 from being bedrock Democratic to reliably Repuiblican.)
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Ohio
(3) Fifteen years ago, when I was comparing the G.W. Bush vote in Ohio with a base-rousing initiative for traditional (i.e. heterosexual & monogamous) marriage, there was a noticeable divide between the xis most-populous counties (those including Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Akron, Dayton & Toledo) and the next six most-populous, but a gigantic chasm between those dozen urban counties and the other 76 more-rural ones. Factors such as migration and Donald Trump’s appeal to displaced industrial workers may have changed this pattern.
In my view, the Democrats would do better to concentrate on Pa., Michigan and Wisconsin than Ohio ,which I believe is likely to be more favorable to Trump.
I don’t necessarily disagree, Jack, and it’s always too easy to confuse cause with effect —When Democrats win, they almost always carry Ohio versus</b) Winning Ohio guarantees that the Democrat will also carry the Electoral College.
At 8.1% or about 450,000, Trump’s margin over Clinton in Ohio was much greater than his margin in Mich. (0.2% or 11,000), Pa (0.7% or 45,000), Wisc. (0.8% or 23,000) & Florida (1.2% or 110,000) and significantly greater than in Arizona (3.5% or 91,000), N. Carolina (3.7% or 173,000) & Georgia (5.1% or 211,000), It’s also not that much narrower than that in Texas (9.0% or 807,000) & Iowa (9.4% or 147,000).
All of these states voted for George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004, and all but Arizona, Georgia & Texas flipped to Barack Obama in 2008.
By the way, the tightest Clinton/Trump margins were in New Hampshire (0.4%), Minnesota (1.5%), Nevada (2.4%), Maine (3.0%), Colorado (4.9%), Virginia (5.3%) and New Mexico (8.2%).
All of these states voted twice for Barack Obama. However, all of them save Maine & Minnesota voted at least once for George W. Bush.