Democrats are holding on in some the races that people thought they would be out of so far….
Could the expected Democratic strong vote for the House bleed over to the Senate races?
Eight weeks out from the midterm elections, both Republicans and Democrats find themselves with a path to a Senate majority.
For Democrats, it is a surprising development given this year’s difficult political map: The party is defending nearly two-dozen seats, including 10 seats in states won by President Trump in 2016.
Yet if the party can sweep every race considered a toss-up, it would end up with a 52-48 majority in the next Congress — even while losing Texas, where Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) is giving GOP Sen. Ted Cruz a stronger-than-expected challenge.
The path for the GOP remains easier — and much more realistic.
If Republicans win just two of the eight races considered by The Cook Political Report to be toss-ups — which include five seats held by incumbent Democrats, one held by an incumbent Republican and two GOP seats where the incumbent is retiring — they would keep the Senate with a 50-50 margin and Vice President Pence’s tie-breaking vote.
Republicans hope they will actually add to their 51-49 margin given the fact that five of the eight races rated as toss-up by Cook are in states that Trump won by double-digits in 2016: North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Tennessee.
For now, the most likely scenario envisioned by Republicans and Democrats is one in which the GOP only slightly extends their majority, with an outside chance that a blue wave would sweep Democrats into both the Senate and the House if all the pieces align just right…..