Day by day?….. More Republican House races move away from their candidates….
David Wasserman @ Cook thinks that there will little change in the basic movement of voters from the polling in the next two weeks until votes are cast in November….Voters are already making up their minds…..
Republicans are therefore starting their efforts to stop the political bleeding early….
The most critical phase of the battle for the House isn’t October; it’s right now. Republicans’ only hope of defying a “Blue Wave” and saving their 23-seat House majority is to personally disqualify Democratic nominees on a race-by-race basis with quality opposition research. But there’s a narrow window of time to do so before the airwaves get clogged, and Republicans will need to be selective.
The playing field of competitive races has expanded, and not in a good way for the GOP: of the 66 races in our “Lean” and “Toss Up” columns, Republicans are defending 62 and Democrats just four. The battlefield includes all types of places: northeastern suburbs, Sun Belt exurbs, Trump zones in the Rust Belt and unexpected locales like Little Rock, Spokane and even the coalfields of southern West Virginia.
Many Republicans wish they could simply run on a great economy, but complain President Trump’s constant distractions won’t let them. Instead, Republicans will have to convince voters that the Democratic alternatives are unacceptable.
In 2010, the DCCC waited until well after Labor Day to launch attack ads against most of their incumbents’ GOP opponents, in part because its strategists believed few voters would remember summertime ads in November. But by late September and October, many GOP nominees had already made defined themselves positively, and the airwaves were crowded with political ads. By then, it was too late for Democrats…..
The “go big early” strategy is a gamble: if attacks like these don’t move numbers in Republicans’ favor in the next month, it’s likely nothing will. But in the words of one consultant, it’s the GOP’s only shot to “ham and egg” its way to 218 seats. …
Democrats remain clear but not overwhelming House favorites. On the low end, it’s possible House control may not be decided until days after the election. It’s also possible a “Blue Wave” could propel Democrats to historic gains, well past the 23 they need. Right now, Democrats appear poised to gain between 20 and 40 seats, with 25 to 35 the likeliest outcome. View our full ratings here….