Nate Silvers ponders the above question….
Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
Old enough to remember to like 2 years ago when the fashion was to treat the numbers among independents as the most important part of the poll. Now just the opposite and there are lots of headlines about a politician’s ratings within his own party.
Look, I don’t have a problem with people saying that a huge GOP majority backs Trump on [INSERT GENERIC ISSUE HERE] so long as they also point out a huge majority of everyone else does not.
Nate Silver….
Now, another 15% or so of Americans *lean* toward the GOP, meaning they don’t call themselves Republicans but will say they’re closer to the GOP if pressed. Finding out Trump’s approval among *that* group would be interesting; they’re more important to his long-term viability.
We keep hearing that 85-90% of Republicans are in favor of everything 45 does, including his performance at Helsinki. Could it be that the reason the % is so high is because the “party” has shrunk to include only his base?
I’m not sure I understand Silvers point.
43% are either self identified Republicans or “lean” that way?Whats so bad about that?
Seems to me his “base” is self evident.
What Silver is saying makes sense to me.
The number of people who actually embrace the label Republican is fairly low these days. There are a lot more who are “anti-liberal” of course. Among Trump’s *strongest* supporters, the Republican label itself is not as valued. Nonetheless, Trump has redefined what it means to be a Republican. Mark Sanford made some very insightful comments this weekend as to that and the concept of “cult of personality.”
Oh I agree that the Republican Party is now his party .Want to call that “redefining?”OK by me ,but there is also an argument to be made that the roots of Trumpism were always there and he simply articulated them , the timing was right and ipso a “redefined”party.
As for the “cult of personality” thing?I mentioned that months ago.
Interestingly, that 43% (Republicans and those who “lean” that way) roughly equals Trumps national approval level.So one can call his supporters what you want I guess.
Since Trump self identifies as a Republican,that’s a good enough designation for me.
Those who approve of Trump is roughly equivalent to the number of people who voted for him. That does not necessarily make them Republican. I will say that among people who voted for him very reluctantly or some who did not vote for him who do lean Republican, he is now far more popular than he was on Election Day, and that is a significant factor.
As for “roots”, I do not believe the unique characteristics he has were prevalent in the party before. Yes, there were pockets of support for people like Buchanan and even in 2016, Santorum and Huckabee ran on aspects of protectionism, and the Paul faction was very much against NATO and “alliances” etc, but the whole pro-Russia angle and the way that a lot of grassroots Republicans bend to defend that now is completely new and completely something that they would not be saying if not for the requirement they think they had to defend Trump on everything in order to “own the liberals.”
The support for Trump cancels out the any ideology those people might have…..
Absent Trump?
Would those people revert back to the Party pre-Trump?
All these numbers do punt to 20% of the party faithful NOT in tune or supporting Trump….
The fascinating party
America is under the influence of a NYC Real Estate guy that is trying to work with and for a old RUSSIAN KGB OFFICER?
It WILL be an interesting next 6 months
If Democrats get the House and several more Givernorships ?
What happens?
If by some miracle the inch out a 1 seat Senate Majority?
Hold on to your seats!
You find the Republican Party “fascinating?”
I can think of a lot of other words for it,but “fascinating” doesn’t come to mind.
I am sure it is the same reason why a lot of people find documentary “battles” on Animal Planet “fascinating.”
The macro picture is that these really are fairly unique and fascinating times politically (in both parties.) Of course, those who are ardent partisans are more swept up in the day by day frustrations to want to appreciate the other factor.
I’m far less concerned with the “reason” they do things than the fact that they do it.
If they are in fact doing and saying things that they actually disagree with?Well then such merely proves what I have been saying for awhile.
Conservatism is meaningless anymore,just a bunch of people who hate “libruls” and the “media.”
Such is the “philosophy” formerly known as “conservatism.”
In my view the whys and wherefore doesn’t really matter anymore.It is what it is.
Donald Trump is the Republican Party.The Republican Party is Donald Trump.
“I’m far less concerned with the “reason” they do things than the fact that they do it.”
That makes you sound like a right-winger engaged in a discussion of either terrorism or urban crime.
Sometimes, the “why” matters, especially if there is a phenomenon going on that one believes should be stopped.
He isn’t really much of a shy person CG
Nor is he a person of greys CG
That is who our guy is
And it is him…
That is fine with me…
Whatever.
And neither the traditional anti-conservatives nor the pro-Trump crowds should ignore the presence of genuine, consistent, principled conservatives. Whether currently “in the wilderness” or not, they exist and are a point of inconvenience.
The Trump Crowd is obsessed with the “NeverTrumpers” on the right and never miss any opportunity to try to stab them in the eye or drive them down. Is it because they just like power or is it because they fear that the pendulum may swing back eventually, as it usually does in politics?
The support to Trump is ‘emotional’
It has little to do with the rational….
The Republican lawmakers KNOw the guy is a unqualified knucklehead , but they don’t have the balls to stand up and stick together…..
This is just a continuation from the campign
Trump just’s huffs and puffs and they ALL fall down….
It’s not really a great secret.
It is often written about how Republican Members of Congress, etc, talk very differently in private about Trump than they do in public.
There was an account I saw last week that had an (unnamed of course) Congressmember basically say, “well, if I say what I want about him, it will make me feel good temporarily, but then I get beaten in a primary by a nut, and Trump is still going to be doing what he does. Why should I commit political suicide?”
There are a lot of people in the Republican Party who are simply waiting him out and believe that is the only strategy available to them. They might be correct or they might be akin to the Vichy French or it might be both.
Actually?
A VAST MAJORITY of Americans and people around the plant are waiting him out….
My hope is that Mueller and Democratic led House starts his down fall,…
The “people around the planet” are basically irrelevant to this matter. It should be noted that there have been populist movements sprouting up all across the world recently, so it’s hardly just a Trump thing or an American thing that should be studied.
We may have different agreements on what constitutes a “vast majority” of Americans.
Those who dislike Trump really dislike him, maybe even more than the people who disliked Obama. On the contrary, those who like Trump (and that is a smaller base than those who support him overall) really like him, perhaps more than Obama’s core base.
Nonetheless, going into a midterm, Trump is basically as popular as Obama was at these points in 2010 and 2014, yet his party will likely do a lot better than the Democrats did.
I have stated why the Democrats winning the House (which they should accomplish) could bolster Trump politically.
Nate Silver on twitter explains that the GOP IS shrinking every day…..
That is while Democratic registrations are climbing ….
Of course I keep repeating that all the signups in the world don’t count if they do NOT VOTE…
Of course Jack is right, once again. At this point, we know why the Republicans in Congress do what they do. They are Republicans and they support their Republican President.
I cannot tell you the number of times I heard Democrats on the Hill say negative things about Bill Clinton when he was President. But they still voted with him at the end of the day. What a profile in courage for a Republican Member of Congress to say bad things about Trump in “private.” Well pin a medal on their chest, if you can find it.
Consider this, this last week the Republicans in Congress voted to reject funds to protect our electoral system in the upcoming November election, and refused to call the translator from the Putin/Trump love fest to ask her in closed session about what was actually said during the meeting. All after Donald Trump had dropped to his knees and given Putin a verbal blow job. Nope, these “profiles” couldn’t bring themselves to do that.
The Republican Party is owned, lock, stock, and barrel by Donald Trump. Does it matter anymore if he was adopted or he co-opted this Party of pussies. They rolled over and put their collective legs in the air for this piece of shit, and they are too afraid of him to oppose him (on even the smallest issue).
Once again, who gives a fuck about why one of these ball less Republican Members of Congress do what they do, they do it.
And, unless they are voted out of office in November, these cowards will keep on doing it.
Pretty easy to understand. All the Republican based excuses in the world cannot excuse the fact that our Republican President is out of control, and his Party will do nothing to stop him.
Yes this whole “explanation” is a weirdly circuitous argument.
So 15% “lean” Republican?Really, what does that mean?How does one know that these aren’t mostly hardcore Trumpites ?We have been told her by our known Republican apologists that a lot of Trump people don’t like the old guard Republicans.
Then there are the 28% who call themselves Republicans.How do we know if they are the hardcore Trumpites or the old guard?
Further, what damn difference does any of this make?They vote for Trump.They support his programs.They vote for Republicans for Congress, Governor and most other offices.They are Republicans.
Yet hours are consumed here with this “greys” argument.Im told I am a black and white person and don’t see the “greys.”That whole thing is nothing more than another one of the many obfuscations used here by the Republican apologists.
My answer to them ,whatever.
If a person supports Donald Trump,votes for that party’s candidates for public offices and spends their time bashing “libruls” and the media?
Yeah I think I’ll keep calling them what they are….
Republicans.