It’s the enthusiasm gap that keeps the view that Democrats will have a majority in the US House come Jan. 1, 2019….
Moves by Trump and Republicans continue to feed that ……
The piece also repeats something I have pointed out here…
Despite the media hurding about the Democrats moving to the left?
Wins in the primaries have not been about THAT at all….
Primary winners have been across the spectrum from moderates to left leaners…The winners at the grass root , in whole, have NOT moved completely to the left…..
The biggest trend has the increased number of women winners….
Four months out, the battle for House control remains highly competitive. But Democrats remain the narrow favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need to win the majority.
Based on the Republicans’ structural advantages from redistricting and residential patterns, Democrats likely need to win seven to eight percent more votes than the GOP to win the barest possible majority of 218 seats. By that measure, it’s close: today, the RealClearPolitics average of congressional generic ballot polls gives Democrats a seven-point lead, while FiveThirtyEight‘s gives Democrats an eight-point advantage.
Republican strategists hold out hope that voters’ economic satisfaction – 63 percent of voters in the most recent NBC/WSJ poll say they’re “very” or “somewhat” satisfied – will temper a “blue wave.” But midterms are almost always a referendum on the incumbent president, and President Trump’s approval rating of roughly 42 percent – while up – is still below that of other presidents when they lost the House in 1994, 2006 and 2010.
These fundamentals suggest a photo finish in the House. But in our view, the intensity gap between the parties’ voters is what gives Democrats a slight edge. In the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, 63 percent of Democrats rated their interest level in the midterms as a “9” or “10,” compared to 47 percent of Republicans. And by 25 points, voters said they were more likely to support a candidate who runs as a “check” on Trump.
This heightened Democratic enthusiasm – and voters’ receptivity to a “check and balance” message – helps explain why, on average, Democrats have run nine points ahead of their typical shares of the vote in eight special elections held since last April.
Some Republicans point to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s massive upset of fourth-ranking House Democrat Joe Crowley (NY-14) in Queens as evidence Democrats are about to fall off a socialist cliff into the land of unelectability. But it’s important to remember that a) 72 percent of House primaries have already taken place and b) most critical primaries are taking place in swing suburbs, not districts Hillary Clinton won by 58 points.
In reality, there’s been no clear ideological pattern in this year’s Democratic primaries. Primary victors in swing seats have ranged from social moderates like state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02) and prosecutor Brendan Kelly (IL-12) to pro-single payer progressives like Kara Eastman (NE-02) and Katie Porter (CA-45). Instead, the clearest trend has been the stunning success of women in Democratic primaries….