The Washington Post’s Dan Balz is out with the view from computer projections that wins like Bush II and Trump could be increasingly occurring….
That scenario tends to be forgotten after every time it occurs…..
But it does prompt calls for the Electoral College to be done away with….
While there is an effort to do THAT thru the states?
Lawmakers in Congress and low population states (Mostly Red) aren’t too keen on changing things….
The simulations point to increased popular vote wins for Democrats,,,,
In the same way Donald Trump got over….
White lower educated voters in select states could give Republicans a win like they have had without the popular vote…
Doesn’t really seem fair….
Two 2020 simulations were run based on 2016 statistics: one with support and turnout levels the same as they were then, the other by lowering the third-party vote closer to historical norms and reallocating it. Under the first scenario, Democrats win the popular vote and the electoral college. Under the second, Democrats win the popular vote, but there is a tie in the electoral college.
Looking forward, both parties’ nominees must decide which voters to target most. Can Democrats win a greater share of white working-class voters, for example, or would Trump, assuming he runs again in 2020, do even better with that group? Can Republicans substantially increase their share of the Latino vote? And can either party successfully increase its share of one group without suffering erosion with another?
Given future population projections, Democrats have a good chance of winning the popular vote in 2020 under most of the many scenarios considered. “In only two cases do the authors actually see a Republican popular vote victory in 2020,” they write. One would involve a swing of 10 points toward the GOP among white non-college-educated voters. The other would be a swing of 10 points toward the GOP among white college-educated voters and a lowering of third party votes with it.
But there are several possibilities examined by the authors in which the Republicans could lose the popular vote and still win an electoral college majority. One, not out of the question, would be a small (five-point) swing toward the GOP among white non-college-educated voters and a swing of equal size toward the Democrats among white college-educated voters.
“The GOP has many roads to the presidency in 2020 even though demographic shifts appear to make a Democratic popular vote victory easier than ever to obtain,” the authors conclude. “Even more interesting, some of these fruitful scenarios continue to produce Republican electoral vote triumphs in 2024 and beyond, despite mounting popular vote losses.”
The authors note that they are not in the prediction game. After what took place in 2016, that’s a prudent course…..
Scott P says
I believe the EC is outdated and needs to be done away with. But I don’t necessarily think the fluke 2016 election is some harbinger for the future.
We should also remember that in addition to 2000 send 2016 there were 2 other times in the last 4 decases that the electoral college was pretty close to going to the candidate who finished behind in the popular vote. In 2004 a flip of 60,000 votes in Ohio would have made John Kerry President–despite the fact that he lost the popular vote nationwide by almost 3% (much like Trump did in 2016). Also in 1976 Ohio and Mississippi were narrow sins for Jimmy Carter that had they gone the other way would have made kept Gerald Ford in the White House.
The state by state effort is as close as it will come in trying to cancel the EC,…
I do NOT think it will succeed
The system is essential for the GOP to counter the advantage the Democrats have in the overall national vote numbers…
That advantage will continue to grow
But just in major cities