Despite Conor Lambs thin will a couple of days ago ?
Republicans have actually held their own in the last few Hosue Special elections….
Larry Sabato’s people believe that in the next two contests in the Arizona 8th CD and the Ohio 12th CD?
Republican’s are likely to hold on again…
— An apparent Democratic takeover in a western Pennsylvania House district that President Trump won by 20 points is an embarrassing setback for Republicans.
— The Republicans’ poor special election performances in general, combined with other factors such as the president’s low approval rating and a Democratic lead on House generic ballot polling, suggest the GOP House majority is in considerable danger.
— Republicans remain favored in two pending special elections, AZ-8 and OH-12, but we are downgrading their chances in both. We also are moving three other races in Ohio from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
— That said, the AZ-8 and OH-12 specials have key differences from PA-18 that may make them easier for Republicans to defend.
Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes
Sure Republicans are favored now
But let’s get a coupke of rallies in from Trump and maybe a visit from one of his crook kids in to boost Democrat chances.
Ya NEVER know Scott…
First Read: “Don’t bet on Democrats continuing their streak of special-election victories in districts/states Trump carried when Debbie Lesko (R) faces off against Hiral Tipirneni (D) on Tuesday in the race to replace former Rep. Trent Franks, (R-AZ).”
“But maybe the bigger story tomorrow, at least when it comes to judging if the political winds are still blowing at the Democrats’ backs, will be looking at the ultimate margin of Lesko vs. Tipirneni in this district Trump carried by 21 points in 2016. In the eight major contests of 2017 and 2018, Democrats have outperformed Hillary Clinton’s margin in these same districts/states by, on average, about 12 points… So Democrats keeping the race to single digits would match that average over-performance.”….
Politicalwire…