Of course he does….
In the linked piece below (10/19/2026) we have the Fox News talking head pointing out that in the past polls have been wrong with Republicans beating them for them post win’s against the prediction’s….
On “Special Report,” FOX News chief political anchor Bret Baier uses RealClearPolitics polling averages to examine the battle for control of the Senate. Baier explains how Republicans could retain their majority if candidates outperform the polls as they have in past elections
BRET BAIER: Early voting is now underway in about 20 states this week, including several of the battleground states with the midterm elections now just 15 days away. Control of the US Senate could really come down to a handful of races.
This is where it currently stands. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
Now, as we look at this map, we can see the yellow states. These are the toss-up states, in essence. Out East, Democrats are really well positioned in North Carolina and Georgia. Republicans have actually started pulling back spending in both of those states. Our latest Fox News power rankings have those two races as likely going Democrat.
Now this is just today, based on the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls. We’re going to do a what-if scenario. As of today, we would give North Carolina and Georgia to the Democrats. The latest rankings have six other races rated as toss-ups, and you throw Minnesota in there. We’ll talk about that in a second, but Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Maine.
True toss-ups. Minnesota is very close too. Right now, the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows Democrats ahead in all six of the toss-up races from less than one point in Iowa to more than three points in Ohio.
But Democrats shouldn’t be measuring the drapes yet, as we’ve seen in elections past. Polls are just a snapshot of time, and they don’t always, as we’ve seen many times, tell us how election day will turn out.
For example, in Alaska in 2020, Dan Sullivan led by two separate polls by five and eight points going into election day. On election day, he won by nearly 13 points.
Maine 2020, big outlier. Susan Collins trailed in the polls for months. In October, polls had her opponent, Sarah Gideon, winning by six or seven points. Collins won by almost nine points.
In Iowa, Joni Ernst led in the polling average by 1.4. She won by more than six.
In Ohio in 2024, Bernie Moreno won by 3.6, outperforming the final RCP average by about two points.
Ted Cruz did the same thing in Texas, winning by more than eight points, outperforming that final average by more than four points.
And finally, in Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin’s final polling average was just over two points. She won by less than half a point.
So what does that tell us? Republicans have tended to outperform the polls in some of these past Senate races in some of these different states.
Keep in mind, different election cycle, different issues, different candidates, different environment. But let’s just say today, if that pattern holds, the Republican path to keeping the Senate becomes much more clear.
So if the polling averages reflect the Senate election days of years past, you would give Republicans Texas, Alaska, Maine, and Iowa.
The Democrats would, if the polls were held today, win Ohio and Michigan. There you see already control of the Senate. They only need 50 because the vice president is 50-plus-one control of the Senate majority……
More…..
Actually Baier is right about Republicans outperforming the polls.