Another one of weekly pieces on how pundits ARE reading the NUMEROUS polls as REALLY Bad news for Republicans across the country…
And?
How these polls seem to reflect a swing AGAINST the second term of Donald Trump as President …..
Reading polling Data they ARE thinking Democrats COULD Gain a US Senate Majority come Jan. 2027 in addition to the expected US House Majority….
Nate Cohn @ The NY Times….
On paper, the Democrats’ path to winning the Senate in November is daunting. They need to flip at least two seats that President Trump won by 11 percentage points or more — no party has pulled off a similar feat since 2008.
But in polls over the last month, the party’s path to the Senate hasn’t seemed daunting at all. Since Labor Day, Democrats have been tied or ahead in nearly every nonpartisan poll of not just two but five states that voted for Mr. Trump by between 11 and 16 points: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas.
Today’s latest New York Times/Siena polls continue the streak. They find Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska and Ohio; tied in Kansas; and down by only one point in Iowa. If the polls were to be exactly right — they won’t be — Democrats would take the Senate with room to spare.
This is an extraordinary run of polls for Democrats, most of all in Texas and Alaska. The Times/Siena polls — and others over the last month — show Democrats building a consistent and potentially meaningful lead in both states. If Democrats won Texas and Alaska, held their own seats and added North Carolina, as expected, they would need to win only one more Republican-held state, whether in Maine, Ohio, Iowa or Kansas, or elsewhere.
Of course, leading polls in September is not the same thing as winning in November — especially in Republican-leaning states, where polls have often overestimated Democrats. And even if they’re not overestimating them this time, Republicans need only to win back reliably Republican voters over the next month to prevail. This is harder than it sounds in this political environment, but it would not be a surprise if they did so. Republicans will have the financial resources they need to make their case.
Nonetheless, just about everything has gone right for the Democrats so far. They enter the final month of the campaign in a better position than anyone would have imagined when the year began. While the story varies somewhat by state, Democrats are cooking with the same recipe across all five contests: At a time when Mr. Trump is very unpopular, Democrats have nominated popular, relatively moderate candidates against surprisingly unpopular Republicans…..
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There are two basic possible explanations for how Mr. Trump’s numbers are this bad in these states. One is that his ratings have continued to slide everywhere, not just in these states, since our last Times/Siena poll, which wouldn’t necessarily be hard to explain with gas prices and mortgage rates rising.
Another possibility is that Mr. Trump is suffering disproportionate losses in these five Republican-leaning states. Demographics, alone, would not be a sufficient explanation. It would take something more, like greater exposure to high diesel prices in the Farm Belt. Or there could even be a break in Mr. Trump’s support among the traditional Republicans who never loved Mr. Trump’s conduct or his policies on issues like tariffs or immigration, but nonetheless consistently backed him in every general election.
Interestingly, all five of these states voted against Mr. Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
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