A Politico piece points to a ‘Maybe’…
With a Lousy Economy and Trump’s name getting worse everyday?
The advantages GOPer’s thought they had?
Seems to be slipping away…
Republicans are growing increasingly worried their mid-decade gerrymandering push isn’t going to save their House majority.
The norm-breaking plan hatched by the White House last summer to draw new maps to protect the party from an unfavorable midterm environment is not on track to bear the fruits they hoped it would. Two months out from Election Day, Republicans are sweating races they thought they would win comfortably when they redrew district boundaries, according to conversations with a dozen Republican strategists on Friday.
Republicans did win the midterm mapmaking war and will likely net at least six seats via gerrymandering — but that’s less than half the number they’d initially hoped when they began the ambitious project over a year ago. That’s largely due to the same political environment threatening GOP seats once thought safe across the map, with President Donald Trump’s approval rating hovering in the high-30s as the unpopular war in Iran continues to affect Americans’ pocketbooks.
Seats designed to be safe in Texas, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina are all still surprisingly competitive, leaving Republicans looking at smaller gains that came from southern state redraws. And on Friday, the Missouri Supreme Court delivered another blow when it blocked a one-seat GOP gerrymander from taking effect this year unless the U.S. Supreme Court intervenes.
Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust and the cartographer of Texas’ redraw, said the mid-decade gerrymandering push still made 10 House districts more favorable for the GOP — but can’t guarantee an outcome.
“Redistricting is construction, not sales,” Kincaid said in an interview Friday. “The other thing I tell people all the time is ‘politics is not the Field of Dreams.’ Just because you build it doesn’t mean they’re going to come.”
And those redraws took effort and political capital that could have been spent elsewhere…..
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