Iran…Trump…Conflict/War…Evening…5/12/2026….The Strait of Hormuz at Your Own Risk….

An Open Secret…..

Ship’s ARE moving thru the Strait…..

In bound and YES….Out bound….

It would seem that ‘protection money’ is being paid to Iran fro safe passage out the Strait by vessels who go ‘Dark’ while making the run Out….

There are reports of empty oil tankers traveling in to hold Iran oil NOT exported….

 

Contrary to what US Defense Sec. Hegseth is fronting?

US Intelligence reports that Iran has retained or rebuilt up to 70% of it’s misisle and drone capabilities….

 

Trump now says his goal is to get Iran’s Uranium….

That’s ALL?

Iran’s hardline military is rearming and says it’s ready to move from the current back to a ‘war’…..

I could be wrong?

But it seems like Trump is NOT in a hurry to start a shooting war AGAIN at Iran …..

Iran IS moving to be ready IF Trump allows Hegseth to resume the Iran War…..

Trump IS burning thru Defense Dept. funding  as it sits and waits across the Middle East…..

 

U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities

The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities.

Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.

People with knowledge of the assessments said they show — to varying degrees, depending on the level of damage incurred at the different sites — that the Iranians can use mobile launchers that are inside the sites to move missiles to other locations. In some cases they can launch missiles directly from launchpads that are part of the facilities. Only three of the missile sites along the strait remain totally inaccessible, according to the assessments.

Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea…..

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Battle Over the Strait of Hormuz Leaves Safe Passage a Gamble

“There is a 600 percent rise in dark activity,” said Ami Daniel, the chief executive of Windward, a maritime intelligence firm. Many ships are turning off not only the transponders that transmit their locations but also the radars that allow them to detect other ships, he said.

Mr. Daniel said he and his research teams are seeing hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps vessels patrolling the waters, suggesting mariners are going dark “predominantly for safety purposes.”

There have been more than three dozen retaliatory attacks on commercial vessels by Iran since the U.S.-Israeli war on the country began in late February. To avoid attacks, some vessels have tried to negotiate safe passage with Iran, traveling on routes that take them through Iranian waters and past the country’s coasts.

This, too, carries significant risks, however…..

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According to Iranian news media, the vessel had passed through the strait with Iran’s permission. This suggests the ship traveled through Iranian waters and along the country’s coasts, and may have paid a toll for passage — in accord with a new Iranian systemput in place amid the war — or made alternate arrangements.

Last month, announcing the American blockade, Central Command said it would “not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

But participating in the Iranian routing and toll system conflicts with American assertions of control in the region….

….

Mr. Daniel of Windward said there has been an increase in traffic in the strait in recent days, with much of the activity involving inbound empty Iranian tankers to provide oil storage while exports are blocked. American officials have argued that once Iran is unable to store oil, it would have to shut down wells, further pressuring the country’s ailing economy….

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ISW…Iran / Trump Update Special Report, May 12, 2026

1. Iran’s consistent pursuit of international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz reinforces ISW-CTP’s previous assessment that Iran views control of the waterway as its most important tool of deterrence against future US or allied military action, because such recognition would allow it to restrict activity in the strait whenever it wills. Iranian sovereignty and control over the strait would have severe consequences for global shipping for all countries dependent on maritime trade, but especially the Gulf States.
2. Iran is likely preparing for a resumption of hostilities. The Kuwaiti government stated on May 12 that six Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers attempted to infiltrate Kuwait’s Bubiyan Island on May 1, though their exact objective was unclear. Bubiyan Island offers a host of opportunities for the IRGC to stage operations, conduct intelligence, sabotage nearby facilities, or some combination of all three. The Iranian military will reportedly also conduct drills at Mahshahr Port on May 12, which is approximately 100 kilometers away from Bubiyan Island. The IRGC Navy could use these drills to prepare for new operations if the ceasefire collapses or to disperse vessels ahead of resumed strikes.
3. Iran may also be trying to protect some of its military assets by repositioning them in countries it calculates that the United States would not attack. CBS reported on May 12 that Iran repositioned military and civilian aircraft in Pakistan and Afghanistan, respectively, shortly after the ceasefire on April 8.
4. The Iranian regime appears to view preparations for renewed conflict with the United States and Israel as inseparable from preparations to secure the regime internally and conduct operations against potential domestic unrest. The Tehran Province IRGC Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Unit conducted an exercise in Tehran Province on May 12. The unit is one of the regime’s most important internal security formations and serves as the primary IRGC command responsible for security in Tehran Province.