President Trump downplayed Republicans’ midterm expectations in an interview with Sean Hannity that aired Thursday, acknowledging the president’s party “always loses” no matter how successful they deem themselves to be.
“If you go back a long way, the sitting president, whether it’s Democrat or Republican, always loses the midterm, even if they’ve done well. Almost always,” Trump told Fox News’s Hannity….
It is time for our first House Ratings of the 2026 cycle. Here is this month’s map, and a link to our YouTube video on how to use some hidden features of it….
Graphic here in the linked piece….
Safe D Pickups: CA-41 (OPEN), UT-1 (Owens).
Redistricted or potentially-redistricted seats are treated as an average of possible redistricting outcomes weighted by likelihood.
Bold denotes a projected flip while Italics denotes a Dem-held tossup seat.
These ratings mean RRH is currently projecting a net shift in House seats in 2026 of between R+3 and D+16.
Note…
The current US House status IS.…
Republicans….218
Democrats…..213
Going past that rather ineffective cut-and-paste to the source, the Red Racing Horse show a 10-seat Dem advantage without giving either party guaranteed control, since 19 seats are toss-ups:
152 Safe D
_46 Likely D
198 Safe + Likely D
_14 Leaning D
212 D subtotal
_19 toss-ups
204 R subtotal
_12 Leaning R
192 Safe + Likely R
_50 Likely R
142 Safe R
correction: make that an 8-seat (not 10-seat) Dem. possible edge.
But if — assuming everything else proves the same — the toss-ups (which are by definition unlikely to swing all one way) were all won by the GOP, their current 5-seat (218-213) edge could double to 11 seats (223-212), requiring Hakeem Jeffries to corral at least 6 GOP votes (or 11 GOP abstentions) to pass anything opposed by the Republican leadership.
make that 12 GOP abstentions for a Dem. win (213-212).
never try mental arithmetic when sleepy.
In the tail of their piece they give their prediction as of now 10 months out…
The chart in the piece gives the why….
In addition ?
There are certain to be more GOPer’s dropping out.
Redistricting is not gonna change these numbers much
Added to this?
IS Trump & Co working HARD to KEEP pissing people off..
If they work hard enough?
Maybe they can give the Senate to the Dem’s which is why the old filibuster ain’t going ANYWHERE
GOPer’s keep backing OUT of returning to Congress next year….
Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) announced Friday he will retire at the end of his term, becoming the 30th House Republican to not seek reelection in an indication of what will be a difficult midterm year for the GOP….
“Serving the people of Nevada has been the honor of my lifetime. Nobody is prouder of our Nevada Congressional District than me. Thank you for the honor. Every achievement worth doing began with listening to Nevadans and fighting for our values,” Amodei said in a statement.
More…