In the below piece from the NY Times….
The question of who is ACTUALLY wielding power in Iran is explored ….
The answers may surprise you…
On the surface, the bloody crackdown affirmed the unity of Iran’s ruling system — centered on the ayatollah and the Revolutionary Guards, estimated to number about 150,000 — and its willingness to take ruthless action to ensure its survival. But Iran experts said the bloody response was also a sign of the system’s growing weakness, exposing the limits of Ayatollah Khamenei’s 37-year rule as he wrestles with surging domestic unrest and intense foreign pressure at the same time.
On Thursday, Mr. Trump said that an American “armada” was heading toward Iran, but that he hoped he would not have to use it. He again warned the Iranian government against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program.
That combination of factors put the ruling system under immense strain, said Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School in California and the author of “Vanguard of the Imam,” a history of the Revolutionary Guards. “Right off the bat, they saw the protests as an existential threat,” he said. “They turned to live fire really quickly because their weakness was acute, and they knew it.”
With the ayatollah’s legitimacy under open challenge, the Revolutionary Guards are emerging as the core of the system. “You have this aging theocrat whose days are numbered,” Mr. Ostovar said. “And you have security forces that are taking an increasingly aggressive response to any threat to the regime.”
The upheaval has renewed comparisons between the Islamic Republic and the Soviet Union in the 1980s, before it collapsed.
Iran has seldom faced a greater array of challenges. Its network of regional proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, is in tatters. Its contentious nuclear program, estimated to cost tens of billions of dollars, failed to bring deterrence. Supplies of water and electricity are running low. Edicts forcing Iranian women to wear head scarves, a symbolic totem of the ayatollah’s conservative rule, are being openly flouted.
“The regime is ideologically bankrupt, economically at a dead end, and unable to rescue itself,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, a research body. “But it still has the will, and a fearsome capacity for repression.”…
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But that approach is seen by some as a mark of vulnerability, even by some of his own supporters, and analysts say his authority is at its lowest in decades….
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For years, the balance of power in Iran has been quietly shifting from Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, to the Revolutionary Guards. They are not only a security behemoth. They control a media empire, large parts of the economy, oil exports, seaports, an intelligence agency and an air force.
“They have everything that it takes to assume power,” Mr. Vaez said.
One scenario is that a figure favored by the Revolutionary Guards would seize power after the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, transforming Iran from a theocracy to a military-dominated country like Pakistan or Egypt.
Another scenario is that a faction of the Revolutionary Guards, fearful of American-backed regime change, could move against him first. “While a military coup was unthinkable a few years ago,” Mr. Ostovar said, “it’s becoming increasingly likely now because of all the pressures building on the regime.”
The picture is further complicated by the generational divide inside the Revolutionary Guards, he said.
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But most analysts agree that, this time, the pressure on Ayatollah Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards is likely to only increase.
“This is not a sustainable situation where you wait for an elderly leader to die to put things back in order,” said Mr. Vaez, drawing comparisons with the last years of Mao Zedong in China, or Leonid I. Brezhnev in the Soviet Union. In Iran, “the problem is the country doesn’t have the time to wait him out.”….
ISW…Iran Update, January 24, 2026
Iranian Leadership: Anti-regime media claimed on January 24 that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved into an underground shelter in Tehran Province, according to two unspecified sources close to the regime. The sources added that Khamenei’s third son, Masoud, has assumed day-to-day oversight of the Supreme Leader’s office and is now the primary conduit for coordination with the government’s executive institutions….
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…Iranian officials are continuing to try to deter potential US military action against Iran amid the United States’ military buildup in the Middle East. An unspecified senior Iranian official told Reuters on January 23 that Iran would treat any attack “as an all-out war.” His statement comes as a US carrier strike group and other assets will arrive in the Middle East “in the coming days.”[40] The official added that Iran hopes that the carrier strike group will not be used to confront Iran, but that the Iranian armed forces are ready for the “worst-case scenario.”[41] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRCG) Commander Major General Mohammad Pakpour and IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi separately warned on January 24 that Iran is “more ready than ever” and has its “finger on the trigger.”[42] An IRGC-affiliated outlet threatened on January 24 that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz if the United States disrupts Iranian and regional security.[43] These warnings come after senior Iranian officials have threatened in recent days to attack US bases in the region if the United States attacks Iran.[44]
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