Hamas…Israel 11/7/2025…The Hamas Question

After the cease-fire in Gaza and exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, the next phase of President Trump’s peace initiative between Israel and Hamas centers on a critical issue: the requirement for Hamas to surrender its weapons.

Israel, united by the trauma of the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, that killed some 1,200 people, insists that stripping the group of its arsenal is nonnegotiable. Now Hamas faces a seemingly impossible dilemma: To comply would mean dismantling its foundation, and to refuse could invite another catastrophic war.

Optimists argue that Hamas has no viable alternative and will eventually comply out of pragmatism. In this view, Hamas may yet accept the terms of Washington’s plan to guarantee its survival, although as a weakened political faction, as an alternative to a renewed devastating Israeli attack.

The more likely view is that Hamas is unlikely to fully relinquish its arms, according to people who have studied the group and understand its psychology. It would cut to the core of its identity. For a movement that built its legitimacy around what it called resistance, giving up its weapons is not just a tactical concession; it is an existential unraveling….

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External pressure on Hamas has never been greater. Israel, the United States and the European Union demand disarmament. Arab governments, weary of Gaza’s endless wars, now quietly echo the call. Even places where Hamas has traditionally found some support, Qatar and Turkey, have signaled backing for the American initiative. Inside Gaza, civilians who lost homes and loved ones now question whether the movement’s weapons brought protection or devastation.

Internal matters within Gaza further complicate Hamas’s ability to disarm. After Fatah, the dominant political force in the Palestinian Authority, ejected Hamas from control of the West Bank, Hamas violently ousted Fatah from Gaza, ruling the strip through a security apparatus built on loyalty and religious zeal rather than political professionalism.

Hamas may well fear that disarmament would embolden rivals eager for revenge. The clashes with the Dagmush, one of Gaza’s most powerful clans, in October resulted in several deaths on both sides. The conflict serves as a reminder of what might follow if Hamas loses its monopoly on force.

Some analysts propose making a distinction between offensive and defensive weapons in negotiations, allowing Hamas to keep the latter and offer a middle ground that could preserve its internal authority while easing international pressure. But Israel is unlikely to accept such nuance, and now there is little that would force it to do so.

Gaza’s future, and perhaps the trajectory of Palestinian politics, depends on how this dilemma is resolved….

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