Have you heard about this “soft secession” movement?
First, some context. As I’m sure many of you know, residents of blue states (Democratic), in general, have a better quality of life than people who live in red states (Republican). For example, let’s look at one pretty important metric: Health. In US News & World Report’s “Best States” report, when evaluating health care access, health care quality, and public health outcomes, all of the top 10 states are blue — Massachusetts is No. 2 behind Hawaii — and every one of the bottom 10 states are red.
(Interesting side note: Remember when Trump’s CDC canceled nearly 700 public health grants to states worth about $11 billion? The grants were intended to help vaccinate people, reduce health disparities among demographic groups, upgrade antiquated systems for detecting infectious disease outbreaks, and hire community health workers.
(Well, the Kaiser Family Foundation discovered that in blue states, nearly 80 percent of those CDC grant cuts have been restored. In red states, where people are unhealthier and need the help, fewer than 5 percent of the grants were restored.
(Why? Because blue states challenged the cuts in court — and won. The leaders of red states, paralyzed by their fear of Trump, didn’t dare try to get the help restored. And their residents are the worse for it.)
Eight of the 10 states with the highest rates of poverty are red states; nine of the states with the highest median income are blue. Every one of the top 10 states for educational attainment are blue states. Of the 10 states with the highest homicide rates, eight are red states.
But an even more interesting statistic is the divide between so-called “giver” states and “taker” states. Giver states are those that send far more money to the federal government in taxes than they get back in federal spending. Taker states are those that get more money from the federal government than they pay in.
I’m sure you can guess what the imbalance is: Blue states are subsidizing red states. More than half of the 19 states that pay more to the feds than they get back are blue states. According to public policy analyst Chris Armitage, Massachusetts sends $4,846 more per capita to the federal government than it gets back. Over five years, New York contributed $142.6 billion more than it received. Meanwhile, red states pocket $1.24 for every dollar they send to Washington, Armitage says. For example, Mississippi received about $30.5 billion more from the feds in 2023 than it sent to D.C. in taxes.
What does that have to do with soft secession?
If you’re thinking that blue states should just keep their own money and let red states try to get by on their own production, well, it doesn’t really work like that. Blue states can’t withhold tax money that goes to the feds because they don’t pay it; businesses and individuals who live in their states do. But they may be better equipped financially to resist federal orders or mandates they believe to be wrong or even unconstitutional, if Trump decides to punish them by withholding federal funds.
For example, some blue states have enacted abortion protections that go far beyond legalizing the procedure; they are shielding women who travel to their states for abortions, those who help them, and the doctors who perform the procedures. Massachusetts and Boston have laws prohibiting state and local law enforcement from helping federal ICE agents nab immigrants. The California attorney general already has a lawsuit ready to go to challenge Trump if he tries to revoke birthright citizenship. According to Armitage, eight states have enacted state Voting Rights Acts that exceed federal protections, and 22 have implemented automatic voter registration. Armitage has more examples:
[Illinois Governor JB] Pritzker has his staff exploring how to force Apple and Google to disable location tracking for anyone crossing into Illinois for medical procedures, preventing any digital trail that could be subpoenaed. Multiple governors are studying whether they can legally deny federal agents access to state databases, airports, and even highways for immigration enforcement. The discussions, according to sources, have gone as far as evaluating state authority to close airspace to federal deportation flights. States are creating pharmaceutical stockpiles, climate agreements, immigration policies. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has secured 209 electoral votes. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative’s 11 states have reduced emissions by 50% while the federal government rolled back climate regulations. The U.S. Climate Alliance’s 24 governors represent 60% of the American economy.
In other words, a lot of states are building a political infrastructure and governance that operates even more separately from the US government. And what’s interesting is that they’re simply emulating red states. Remember when Texas sent its National Guard to the border during the Biden administration to stop migrants from entering the state, even though immigration is the sole purview of the federal government?
This is federalism in 2025, folks: Blue states going off on their own to protect rights, fund education, reduce violence with strict gun ownership laws, and make sure their residents can access good quality health care, while red states strip away rights, starve schools of resources, let their communities become Wild Wests, and refuse to try to keep their people healthy. I know where I want to live….
Note….
Yet there CONTINUES to be migrations FROM Blue state’s TO Red States by Americans….
The benefits In Blue states mean more taxes and a higher cost of living…..
People ARE giving up the benefits of the Blue States…..
But some?
Carry and keep those benefits in their Blue State retirements and benefits…..