Most of the serious pundits and pollsters HAVE moved to Harris favored to win….
(They ARE carrying the 2016 Clinton loss on their backs)
Not a blow out…..
But she has the better chance of making Trump 0-2…..
Sabato bounces around but settles on Harris….
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball forecasts Kamala Harris winning the electoral vote over Donald Trump, 276 to 262.
“If Harris does win, it might be an indicator that the last days of a campaign can matter, even at a time when so many vote before Election Day. We are not going to recount the various headlines from Trump and his allies over the past 10 days or so, but ask yourself: has Trump closed strong in this race? We don’t really think so, nor do many of the people we’ve talked to in the past several days.”
“He also, in our view, has been more prominent down the stretch than Harris has been, which may not be helpful to him—this is mostly impressionistic, to be sure, but think back to when Trump won in 2016: The focus late in that campaign was Hillary Clinton’s emails and her problems.”
They also have Republicans winning the Senate with 52 seats and Democrats barely winning the House with 218 seats.
Sabato always copies me. At least he did on the Presidential one.
He has one more Senate seat going D than me and two fewer House seats.
I am stubbornly, stubbornly, sticking to the prediction that Sherrod Brown hangs on, barely. Almost nobody else (besides pom pom wavers) are doing that at this point.
If there is one person that could ruin that for him and me though….
But how can we be sure it isn’t you cribbing your methodology from Sabato, as opposed to the other way around?
Because I published first!
But you two do use the same methodology, I’d think. And I’m sure he’s been at this longer.
No knock on Sabato. I’ve followed him since 2006, and respect his calls even when I disagree with him. Prognostication is tricky at times. Not entirely a knock on you, either. Some of the leans/likely R calls you made were, I thought, actually bearish on the R candidate’s chances.
I do not have a methodology. I just go with my instinct. To clarify, he has his Senate and House predictions both *slightly* more Republican than I do. It is also true that in several cycles I have either matched or surpassed him on the 435 House races.
276 for Harris is pretty much the most chosen option across the board at this point.
Chiefs win on an OT touchdown. The winning score by K.H.
Mahomes could be hurt……
But they pull that Rabbit out of the Hat AGAIN!….
For the record, last time around, I thought Biden would win NC, FL, TX, and OH. Since then, I’ve actually tried to be more accurate and unsparing in assessing things. As much as my biases will let me. This time, I factor in growth in urban and suburban areas, plus significant backlash over Roe versus Wade. These being the kinds of things that could turn districts under 60-40 Trump last time into battlegrounds. Though CG and I both agree Lawler will hold on in NY. His opponent has pissed off too many people.
I am biased towards Democrats. My predictions certainly reflect this. But I do go district to district, peruse the opportunities for both parties, and assess candidate quality. I did see where Democrats punted and left 3 districts on the board where they might have done well in a bullish scenario(Williams in Texas, Massie in Kentucky, Strong in Alabama). Next best opportunity in 2 of those 3 would be 2028, when Harris is running against Don Jr, Tucker, or Kanye. The Norman seat in SC(Charlotte Metro and Columbia exurbs) was off the board because the candidate already underperformed in the district last cycle. Granted, ’22 was a bad year for D’s in the state.