There IS a new report that the betting outfit COULD be working to help the Trump Presidency campaign…..
…In the puzzle that is the 2024 election, many people are turning to prediction markets offered by Kalshi and rivals such as Polymarket or PredictIt. They lure some to put down money and others as an alternative readout on the state of the presidential race to those offered by conventional pollsters, pundits and the media. Around $2 billion in cryptocurrency has been wagered on predicting the next president on Polymarket as of Friday. The New York-based company says it receives tens of millions of visits per month….
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As of Friday, pricing on Polymarket suggested former president Donald Trump had a 60 percent chance of winning the presidency and Kamala Harris had a 40 percent chance. On Kalshi, Trump was trading at 56 percent and Harris at 44 percent. The Washington Post’s polling average, which incorporates 53 national polls, shows Harris with a lead of two percentage points over Trump. Speculation surged on social media this week about who might be behind Polymarket accounts that placed tens of millions on a Trump victory…. .
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The majority of Polymarket’s 210,000 users have lost modest amounts of money on the platform, according to the analytics site LayerHub, and as of Friday only 12 percent of users have made a profit….
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The all the sudden Trump higher betting to win?….
Trump’s odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris next month have received a massive boost in recent weeks on Polymarket, an online betting platform that was funded partly by longtime Trump backer Peter Thiel.
Polymarket gave Trump a 60 percent chance of winning on Friday, while Harris was given a 40 percent chance. Although polls continue to show Harris slightly ahead or the race neck-and-neck, the contest was last tied on Polymarket October 4.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that “the surge might be a mirage” created by just four mysterious accounts that have recently spent around $30 million betting on Trump. Polymarket odds are dictated by so-called “collective wisdom” rather than outside factors like polling data…
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Miguel Morel, CEO of crypto analysis firm Arkham Intelligence, reportedly said that there was a “strong reason to believe” that all four Polymarket accounts that are betting heavily on Trump “are the same entity.”
The accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—reportedly created between June and earlier this month, were all funded using the same cryptocurrency exchange and all have similar betting patterns….
Note…
The Feds are trying to shut down this type of betting…
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