We are approching the weekend before the 2024 Presidential Election and what a differnce in the two campaigns….
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are out doing retail politics….
Making stops AMONG the voters…..
Making appearances and answering questions…..
Donald Trump & Co. are talking about lawyers……
Trying to run away from a Madison Square appaerance that has caused them grief….
That while Trump is ‘sure’ he’s gonn a win?
BUT?
He’s back to crying about the vote?
Oh?
And doing stunts that almost had him fall out of a garbage truck?
And making fries at McDonald…..
Harris campaigning….
Kamala Harris on Tuesday night warned Americans that Donald Trump would open up a floodgate of vengeance against his political rivals, including ordinary citizens, while promising that she’d work tirelessly for every American.
“In less than 90 days, either Donald Trump or I will be in the Oval Office,” Harris said from the Ellipse in Washington, DC, pivoting to the visage of the White House behind her as she delivered what her campaign had billed as a “closing argument” speech.
“On day one, if elected, Donald Trump would walk into that office with an enemies list. When elected, I will walk in with a to-do list full of priorities on what I will get done for the American people.”
Standing where Trump told his supporters on January 6, 2021, to “fight like hell,” shortly before they ransacked the US Capitol, Harris described the election as an existential choice between the liberties she promised to protect and the “chaos and division” that she said would follow Trump back into the White House….
…
State of play: Trump and his allies’ closing message has often descended into pointed, personal attacks at Harris and others even though Trump called Sunday’s rally a “love fest.”
- However, the Trump campaign said in a statement that Hinchcliffe’s joke about Puerto Rico “does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.”
- In addition to his comments about Puerto Rico, Hinchcliffe, also known as “Kill Tony,” made racist jokes about Black people, Palestinians, Jews and Latinos broadly at Trump’s New York rally.
Zoom out: Democrats have sought to frame the rally rhetoric as keeping in line with Trump’s commonly inflammatory language.
- An ad from Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC repeatedly labeling Harris and other Democrats as the “c-word” (in this case, “communist”) and other controversies have further played into campaign rhetoric…..
…
“Before Election Day has even arrived, the ‘Stop the Steal’ movement has reemerged in force, with some of the same activists who tried to overturn former President Donald Trump’s 2020 loss outlining a step-by-step guide to undermine the results if he falls short again,” CNN reports.
“For months, those activists – who have been priming Trump supporters to believe the only way the former president can lose in 2024 is through fraud – have laid out proposals to thwart a potential Kamala Harris victory.”
“Their plans include challenging results in court, pressuring lawmakers to block election certification, and encouraging protests – culminating on January 6, 2025, the day Congress will once again certify the results.”
…
Trump and Women support trouble….
“They said, ‘Sir, I just think it’s inappropriate for you to say.’ I pay these guys a lot of money; can you believe it?” Trump continued. “I said, ‘Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them. I’m going to protect them from migrants coming in. I’m going to protect them from foreign countries that want to hit us with missiles and lots of other things.’”
Harris campaign aides were quick to highlight the remarks, arguing it showed Trump did not care about women voters.
“Defining line of this campaign? Trump: ‘I’m gonna do it whether the women like it or not,’” Harris campaign spokesperson James Singer posted on X.
“Saying the quiet part out loud there,” Lauren Hitt, another Harris campaign aide, posted on X….
…
Trump has had trouble winning over female voters in his past two presidential campaigns, and polls have shown that he once again trails Harris, who has rapidly consolidated support among female voters since she replaced President Biden atop the Democratic ticket. Harris has made reproductive rights central to her campaign, blaming Trump for the end of Roe v. Wade and the restrictive abortion bans subsequently passed by states across the country…..
New Open Thread is HERE.….
Hmmmm?
Trading in Trump Media Halted Again
October 31, 2024 at 10:30 am EDT
Trading in Trump Media shares were halted twice Thursday morning as shares rapidly dropped at the start of another volatile trading session, CNBC reports.
The Independent: Trump loses $1.3bn in net worth after his social media stock tanks.
Sorry everyone
I’m filtering out and old knuckle head
There are many, many easy ways to do that which would not impact anybody else. This has been explained to you before, but you are set in your ways.
CG…..,,
U have NO idea what a pain in the ass his BS IS……
He does made it difficult for others and he doesn’t care
1. Ban his IP address.
Then:
2. Reject any “new posters” who try to sign up here.
3. Realize there are not going to be any actual new posters here.
1. I HAVE….. ALL of them
2. They auto maticly go into moderation
3. Been THAT way for a LONG time…..
Then, there should be ZERO reason why any post from any of the small handful of “regulars” at this place should ever go into moderation. No reason for that at all (besides for trolls who post last names.) We all have our sign-ins. Should be free access at all times.
I loved the guy at one point, but at his current rate of decline, he’ll have the shortest post Presidency since James Polk in 1849. Utterly sad. Glad he made way for Kamala Harris, who is actually up to the job.
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-bites-several-babies-halloween-event-1977799
Here’s a better link than that Newsweek sludge.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/us/1969582/Biden-bites-baby-kisses-Halloween-display/amp
Joe Biden began to wear out his welcome in the end
Trump just spoke tonight about shooting Liz Cheney.
Should be a violation of his bail but if gets taken into custody, it probably helps him win an election.
Any consideration that Biden or Harris might have had about a post-election pardon for him should be off the table.
Good Morning Everyone…..
More Good polling and voting news for Harris/Walz…..
3 Days out….
What James has to do here is a nuisance and there may well be better ways of doing it, but he no less has to do it.
That cretin somehow got my email address and messaged me the most detailed personal information about James a year and a half ago. I immediately contacted James and let him know. It’s really crazy stuff. I can see why another poster hasn’t slept since that cretin threatened to send cartels out to his residence on the East Coast.
Yes on the cretin SE….
CG has NO idea….
No, I have an idea because as you should remember, he has also made several attempts to convey this information to me and I also contacted you to let you know and gave you advice on how you should deal with it, including if you wanted to contact authorities.
Of course I have never allowed his personal comments about you or your family to be published on my blog . That is not a courtesy you extend.
The knuckleheads Unfortunately come with territory…
I learned a new term from reading a new interview with Stephen Stills, promoting the new CSNY Fillmore live set. “Irish Alzheimers.” When it gets to where the only thing you know and remember is petty grudgmanship. If that doesn’t sum up this blog’s comments, I don’t know what does.
And YES SE….
Our crew here has BEEN here for a LONG time and for some?
It’s personal…
Wasted energy….
Who are uh “ some?”
Not you and your fan here ,right?
Self righteous pap…
Some?
What he’s saying is he resembles the original comment.
Resents ?
What comment?
My original about the petty grudges. The one that started this “conversation.”
Yeah that it!
The “ insights” here are,well, what can one say?
Uh I guess “ astounding “ in the only appropriate label!
The Downballot is doing their predictions contest, with the prize being Brooklyn’s best Babka. For those who aren’t paid subscribers, a link to that particular bakery:
https://www.greensbabka.com/
Trump Lacks the ‘Attention Span’ to Stage a Coup
A Wall Street Journal editorial says Donald Trump lacks the “attention span” to “to stay on one message much less stage a coup.”
SEROUSLY Folks?
Ain’t much of ANYTHING Good being written about Donald J. Trump by the pollsters and pundits who readily admit they are trying to give Trump a bit of a bye on the polls because of his 2016/2020 voting numbers coming out slightly better then the polls….
Ah?
Maybe?
But the guy LOST last time while he WAS IN Office, eh?
Another day, another WSJ article sane-washing the would be dictator.
Yup!….
The guy IS WHO he is…..
And ‘sane’ or in this Reality IS a stretch ….
Morning All……
2 days out……..
Trump on Defense
Harris on Offense
Trump stooge Tucker Carlson claims he was “ attacked” by a “ demon .”
Those “ evangelical “ nutjobs who believe in this type of silliness eat this stuff up.
Go over to Twitter
U have NO idea how crazy the shit is there
Updated swing poll’s piece coming a bit later
Still good news for Harris
Guy talks about his physical scars. I have a very vivid and freewheeling imagination. Trump and McConnell, yes. But I just can’t go there with Tucker and imagine him in the buff.
Whoever came up with that right wing boob bait about ABC/one of their affiliates announcing Harris’ win in Pennsylvania must read this website, since the winning margin copies my prediction(which itself is based on her replicating Ovama’s 2012 margin).
*Obama’s
REALLY????😳
https://nypost.com/2024/10/30/media/abc-mistakenly-airs-fake-election-results-declaring-harris-winner-of-key-swing-state/
DAMN!
ABC kinda embarrassed
Iowa is officially a swing state once again. Harris leads by 3.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
That Iowa Selzer poll is absolutely unbelievable. Her entire career and reputation are on the line with that. An Emerson Iowa poll that came out a couple hours ago showed Trump up by 10.
MAGA was definitely not expecting this though.
She’s among the most reliable names in polling, to say nothing of Iowa.
If Harris wins Iowa, a scenario I didn’t think was possible until this morning, it’s definitely a romp for her.
I was prepared to be shocked and happy if it showed Harris within 3. This is hard to fathom.
I do not think she will actually win Iowa. I do think she is better shape for winning the election than she was a week ago.
I wish they’d polled the 3 House races Democrats have a shot in. No one is talking the Hinson versus Corkery race, but that’s an under the radar race won if Harris actually does it in Iowa or comes really damn close.
Ok Guys?
I think Harris WILL win this….
But I DO NOT think she’ll get Iowa…..
If she does?
Trump will lose in a Blow Out….
The poll’s gotta be a outlier
The most reputable poll in Iowa, and among the best in the country.
In other words, as big as it gets.
If anything, I will have to submit a revised prediction Monday to reflect some of the breaks Democrats have gotten since the Madison Square Garden rally. My big win scenario may have actually been bearish on Harris’ chances.
#11 ranked Iowa State is about to go down to defeat too. I wonder what that will do to people there.
They LOST…..
Ann Selzer has some cojones. That is for sure. MAGA would not allow her to do any womens’ sports at this point.
based on what I recall from the past, they may have the 4 House district polls released on Sunday morning.
I would be astonished if that rural-most seat is closer than a 2-1 rout for Republicans. Steve King’s old seat.
I have Democrats narrowly flipping the first district in Iowa but nothing else. Republicans narrowly hold on to the third.
Who knows though? Selzer does have a very good record.
I actually donated to the woman you have flipping that seat. So that makes me feel good.
Matthew Klein
@MattKleinOnline
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
About as good as any pollster gets.
The funny thing is that a couple of hours ago when the Emerson IA poll came out showing Trump up 10, all sorts of people thought it was the DMR poll they were anticipating tonight. They were saying. “Ann Selzer is the gold standard. She is showing Trump up 10. Take it to the bank.”
This is going to be hard for them.
MAGA is obsessed with Predicit and Polymarket. It is definitely doing some interesting things right now.
Betting numbers ain’t polling numbers or even voting number’s….
And I think some guy has been gasing the odds with his bet money
I’m now curious what a new poll from Missouri would show. Harris obviously won’t win there, but Kunce could have a small opening against Hawley. Same with Ray Hartmann, who’s running against Ann Wagner in a Suburban St. Louis House race. That one I was bearish on because of how it was redistricted, but in a landslide scenario?
My post speculating on MO is in moderation. I mention a congressional candidate whose name has syllabic similarity with a certain Eastwood character who was banned here.
Harris is arriving in NYC in an unscheduled visit. I would be a lot of money it is for SNL, though I thought they were not going to allow the candidates to show up.
MAGA to say she is scared she is about to lose NY.
Morning……
ONE Day out from Election Day…..
Harris trending for a WIN in the ending polls…..
Hope everyone resets their clocks
Final election calls if volunteered here should be by tomorrow?
I will you email you a revised prediction on account of the late movement we’re seeing towards Harris.
In a sign the campaign thinks the state is winnable, Team Harris has dispatched the “Explainer in Chief” himself, former President Bill Clinton, to Cleveland, Ohio.
Kinda Late?
Secret Service must be crazed and exhausted…..
Something is better than nothing. Or better late than never.
This is feeling like Biden just before Super Tuesday 2020, when he went on to win a bunch of states where he was tied for second or third just days earlier.
Indeed…..
Again?
The pundits and pollster’s seem to be scared……
They’re playing up Trump’s chances like they did the “red wave” last time. I ignore them and their wannabes.
Yup….
Donald TRUMP LOST THE 2020 Presidential Election…..
It’s still a very close race and could go either way.
In other words,despite all the rah rah here?
It remains a toss up,likely to be decided by a narrow margin for the ultimate winner in just a few states.
Always IS that….
But?
Harris is riding a media high on her trending slightly UP….
Again?
Trump is playing Defense and he and his minions are crying and talking about AFTER THE ELECTION fight’s ……
Don’t sound like winners to me….
Really?
You told me a few weeks ago,”it’s not a tossup.”
So I guess it is not,”Always is that.”
The pundits and most pollsters are saying’tossup…..
They’re worried
But hedge their bets with
Oh?
Harris CAN win
The ending polls are moving TO Harris
NO TOSS UP
Yeah Harris “can “win
So “can “Trump
That’s why it’s a tossup.
It’s HELL being a “ sage” I guess
Some of us read past the pundits and pollsters and read the numbers, trends and FUNDAMENTALS…
I wouldn’t be surprised if the betting market’s swing to Harris by tomorrow night
Yeah I never do that stuff.
Then again?
I ain’t no “ sage.”
Different strokes for different folks…
National Popular Vote
Kamala Harris/Tim Walz-54%
Donald Trump/JD Vance-45%
Electoral College
Harris/Walz-417 EV’s(holding all the ‘Core 7’ swing states, plus the Omaha, NE, District, and flipping AK, FL, NC, IA, OH, the rural Maine district, the Lincoln district in NE, and TX)
Trump/Vance-121 EV’s
State by State Result Surmisions
Alabama: 55-44 Trump(increases in D support around Auburn, Huntsville, and Tuscaloosa cut significantly into R margins, far from enough to flip a dark red state)
Alaska: 51-48 Harris
Arizona: 52-48 Harris
Arkansas: 56-44 Trump(large gains around Little Rock Suburbs and NW AR metros cut into R margins)
California: 63-35 Harris
Colorado: 57-42 Harris
Connecticut: 58-41 Harris
Delaware: 60-39 Harris
Florida: 51-49 Harris(D trends in Gainesville/Alachua County, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, and Saint Petersburg override any gains elsewhere, in addition to the projected fall in support in the Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach area post Madison Square Garden rally)
Georgia: 52-47 Harris
Hawaii: 66-33 Harris
Idaho: 59-40 Trump(big D swings around Boise and various College towns make it closer than usual)
Illinois: 59-41 Harris
Indiana: 56-44 Trump
Iowa: 51-48 Harris(undecideds in the Selzer poll split evenly between the two)
Kansas: 51-49 Trump(lots of Moderate R voters crossing over in the wake of Roe v Wade’s overturning makes this a close result, and a state to watch in the future)
Kentucky: 55-44 Trump(big D swings around the Lexington, Frankfort, and Cincinnati metros cut margins down considerably)
Louisiana: 58-42 Trump
Maine: 58-42 Harris
ME-1: 63-37 Harris
ME-2: 51-49 Harris
Maryland: 68-31 Harris
Massachusetts: 62-38 Harris
Michigan: 53-47 Harris
Minnesota: 55-45 Harris
Mississippi: 56-44 Trump
Missouri: 53-47 Trump
Montana: 56-44 Trump
Nebraska: 55-44 Trump
NE-1: 50-50 Harris(margin of a couple thousand or so votes for her)
NE-2: 55-45 Harris
NE-3: 73-27 Trump
Nevada: 51-48 Harris
New Hampshire: 57-42 Harris
New Jersey: 60-39 Harris
New Mexico: 57-42 Harris
New York: 61-39 Harris
North Carolina: 52-47 Harris
North Dakota: 65-35 Trump
Ohio: 51-49 Harris(D swings around Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland Meteo, Dayton, even Springfield put the state back into play)
Oklahoma: 58-42 Trump(D swings in OKC and Tulsa drag Harris to the highest D vote share since Al Gore)
Oregon: 59-41 Harris
Pennsylvania: 52-47 Harris
Rhode Island: 60-40 Harris
South Carolina: 52-48 Trump(D swings in Greenville, Florence, and the Charlotte Metro counties make this an unusually close state, and one to watch going forward)
South Dakota: 59-41 Trump(D swings around Rapid City and the Indian Reservations make this the best D performance since Obama)
Tennessee: 58-42 Trump(D swings in the Nashville Suburbs, Knoxville, and Chattanooga make for the best showing since John Kerry in 2004)
Texas: 51-48 Harris
Utah: 55-44 Trump
Vermont: 73-27 Harris
Virginia: 57-43 Harris
Washington: 61-39 Harris
Washington DC: 94-6 Harris
West Virginia: 63-37 Trump
Wisconsin: 53-47 Harris
Wyoming: 66-34 Trump
Senate
Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego 54-46 over Republican Kari Lake
Florida: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel Powell 51-48 over Incumbent Republican Rick Scott(Democratic Gain)
Indiana: Republican Jim Banks 55-45 over Democrat Valerie McCray
Maryland: Democrat Angela Alsobrooks 58-41 over Republican Larry Hogan
Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin 53-46 over Republican Mike Rogers
Missouri: Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley 52-47 over Democrat Lucas Kunce
Montana: Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester 49-49(margin of a few hundred votes) over Republican Tim Sheehy
Nebraska(full term): Dan Osborn 51-48 over incumbent Republican Deb Fischer(Independent/Democratic Gain)
Nevada: Incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen 54-46 over Republican Sam Brown
Ohio: Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown 53-47 over Republican Bernie Moreno
Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr 53-46 over Republican David McCormick
Texas: Collin Allred 51-47 over incumbent Republican Ted Cruz(Democratic Gain)
Utah: Republican John Curtis 57-43 over Democrat Caroline Gleich
West Virginia: Republican Jim Justice 59-41 over Democrat Glenn Elliott(Republican Gain)
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin 54-46 over Republican Eric Hovde
D +2. Democrats retain their Senate majority and have an opportunity to expand such in 2026.
House
Democratic gains AL-2(New District), AZ-1(Schweikert), AZ-2(Crane), AZ-6(Ciscomani), CA-3(Kiley), CA-13(Duarte), CA-22(Valadao), CA-27(Garcia), CA-40(Kim), CA-41(Calvert), CA-45(Steel), CO-3(Open), FL-4(Bean), FL-7(Mills), FL-13(Luna), FL-15(Lee), FL-27(Salazar), FL-28(Gimenez), IA-1(Miller-Meeks), IA-2(Hinson), IA-3(Nunn), KS-2(Open), KY-6(Barr), LA-6(New District), MI-4(Huizenga), MI-10(James), MO-2(Wagner), MT-1(Zinke), NE-1(Flood), NE-2(Bacon), NJ-7(Kean Jr), NY-1(LaLota), NY-3(D’Esposito), NY-19(Molinaro), NY-21(Stefanik), NY-22(Williams), NC-9(Hudson), NC-11(Edwards), OH-10(Turner), OH-15(Carey), OR-5(Chavez-DeRemer), PA-1(Fitzpatrick), PA-10(Perry), SC-4(Timmons), TX-3(Self), TX-15(De La Cruz), TX-23(Gonzales), TX-31(Carter), VA-1(Wittman), VA-2(Kiggans), VA-5(Good), WI-1(Steil), WI-3(Van Orden)
Republican gains: NC-6(Open), NC-14(Open)
D +51. Democrats gain the US House in a landslide reminiscent of the 2010 Tea Party Wave
Governors
Indiana: Republican Mike Braun 52-47 over Democrat Jennifer McCormick
New Hampshire: Democrat Joyce Craig 52-48 over Republican Kelly Ayotte(Democratic Gain)
North Carolina: Democrat Josh Stein 59-38 over Republican Mark Robinson
D +1
SE @ Politicaldog101…..
The GOPer’s are trying to rig the vote in Georgia..…
In 2020 the judges did NOT entertain this bull shit….
Not even in Red States…..
I’ve repeated my call…..
Harris Wins…..
Democrats get a House Majority
Republican gain a slim Senate majority…..
I’m sorry
Scott u give ur guess?
I’ll go with Harris 319 and Trump 219. Iowa is a photo finish but I still give it to Trump.
May I remind everyone?
Hillary Clinton was in popular and had Comey and her email’s to defend…..
Coming off Obama?
Trump probably had a advantage
And Trump was been defined this time as who he IS
I know I said it wasn’t a toss-up so much as it was unclear from polls who would get the big win. It looks like Harris is in that position to wipe Trump out. And that was before what we saw yesterday in the Selzer Iowa poll.
Cannot speak for James. I tend only to skim his comments before responding.
My predictions:
Governors:
27 R
23 D
no net change
Senate-
51 R (net gain of 2)
49 D
House-
220 D (net gain of 6)
215 R
Presidency-
Harris 276
Trump 262
Record producer and musician Quincy Jones dies at 91.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2024/nov/04/quincy-jones-musician-michael-jackson-producer-dies
Morning everyone
Tomorrow………
Things ARE Trending Harris…
A lot of Harris fundraising solicit’s coming at me online….
Hope they end tomorrow
I gave…..
Olbermann invoked his framed copy of “Dewey Defeats Truman,” and I now see the historic paralell for this election. The one this cycle will be compared to, complete with Truman’s replacing Roosevelt atop the ticket! OK, not exactly analogous, but you get the point.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uNNHRdOlEes
This is not 2016, regardless what anyone else says.
I came across ac comment left on my blog on 11/12/08. (I won’t say who posted it.) Seemed appropriate to mention tonight I suppose.
“Corey, word is that San Francisco DA Kamala Harris (D) plans on running for California Attorney General in 2010, assuming incumbent State AG Jerry Brown (D) doesn’t seek reelection and go for the governorship again.
Harris would become the first African American female to hold the office if she wins.”
Every time I think of that poster, I’m reminded of the time I hijacked Ron’s user name and “banned” him from the blog. The dumbass then lit into “Ron,” and had to be told what was actually going on by DSD. I was way ahead of my time in “banning” that guy.
james, did you get any response in reaching out to DSD?
No response from DSD…..
NONE…..
I miss him….
Revised Dixville Notch prediction:
Harris 4
Oliver 1
Trump 1
Harris 5, Trump 1 in Dixville Notch
Harris 28, Trump 17 in Hart’s Location
Best guess I can give.
I’m still looking for BDog, Daniel and Keith (I KNOW his call)…
I am not one to brag, but I am killing it on Twitter tonight.
Trump types CG????
Twitter has been SUPPER STRONG FOR TRUMP…..
I just basically offer some random thoughts up knowing it might offend or trigger people who deserve to be offended or triggered.
I mean it is too bad that I am pretty much invisible on there but building a “brand” on there is not really something I want to invest in.
Sample Tweet:
#Election2024 Trump is ending this campaign in the States of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Next up for him will be the states of Confusion, Denial, Rage, and Who Can I Blame.
NICE CG!….
Mahomes just got hurt. Trump demands the election be suspended.
Plot twist: Mahomes is fine. Looks like he was playing a practical joke.
For all this confused person claims to care about abortion, she seems to not know which side is trying to enact the abortion ban version of George Carlin’s “two minute warning.”
https://variety.com/2024/tv/features/sopranos-star-drea-de-matteo-trump-support-onlyfans-1236190789/
Election Night Predictions:
Democrats retake the house with a small margin, first black speaker of the house Hakeem Jeffries, which has been completely overshadowed by the presidential race
Senate falls back to Republicans, I think 51-49…could be split, but I am not a confident in that…
Presidential: I’ve always said Any Democrat should be able to beat Trump not named Biden and any Republican can beat Biden not named Trump…Dems took too long to get there, but they did eventually get there, I am thinking Harris will win, but I am not sure I think it will be with a clean sweep in the so called Blue Wall, one of those three states going Trump, and I don’t think it will be Pennsylvania that goes Trump, she will win somewhere else…
Thanks Bdog….
Would like Keith and Daniel if they could….
We ALL are calling Harris here….
Daniel twists in the wind. Throw him on the pile, I guess.
Keith is bullish, but maybe not to the degree that I am. He certainly has the inside scoop.
While I have made my prediction, I am maintaining the race is still a Tossup. We all should be cognizant that an ultimate result we prefer could color our judgment.
At this point, a Trump win, even one that would involve a sweep of all seven swing states, should not be considered a total surprise.
All we can do is wait.
Whichever side loses, there will be a ton of regrets, especially in terms of the weaknesses of the nominated candidates (three of them in this particular cycle), but there will be some more specific ones as well.
Depending on the result, the most talked about one will either be:
A. Why in the world did he refuse to allow Nikki Haley to campaign for him?
B. Why in the world did she pick Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro?
Morning Everyone…….
Finally get this thing done….
The Arnold Palmer-Dixville Notch joke I made on Twitter is going to blow up.
Dixville Notch results
Trump 3
Harris 3
This one’s for Jack, and all the others. No excuses, no shirking from this. Because I try to be on the level and acknowledge mistakes, more than a mea culpa is in order after the ghastly fail that was this year’s predictions. Specifically, the way we did things back in 2012 with my brokered Democratic convention idea set a good template for how I should proceed.
I’ve wasted enough of everyone’s time. Thanks for everything, James. Ttuly. From the bottom of my heart. Over and out.
Good Morning All…….
Went to sleep last night knowing this morning was gonna be a Harris LOSS…..
Disappointed but I KNOW things won’t AS BAD as the media is selling…..
THAT is of NO comfort….
Yes Jack, In a Red State felt it MORE than us in Blue states….
New York stays Democratic….
But?
The swing states failed Democrats….
We here did NOT expect that….
We got it wrong…..
I’m going with my wife….
This is’t about the economy…..
This IS about America and Women ….
There maybe women Mayor’s and Governor’s….Congress Women….
But?
Misfit Trump has beaten ANOTHER Strong woman again….
It seems THAT simple.….
I’m STILL LOOKING for comments from Kevin and Daniel….
Who is Kevin?
Keith i mean
Just blaming Harris’s loss on her being a woman is way way too simplistic.
Looking at the results ,there are a myriad of reasons for her defeat, including, yes “the economy “( your wife and your view notwithstanding).it’s improved greatly in the past year or so but people haven’t forgotten the pain of the inflation of the past few years and grocery prices are still rising .I have previously stated my view as to presidential responsibility; however,politically? Sure the incumbent is going to get the blame.
All of the above then directly feeds into Bidens general unpopularity and a general feeling that the country is not doing well.
Generally when the economy is bad( or even perceived that way) , the incumbent is unpopular and a feeling the country is off kilter, then the incumbent or the candidate of his party( Harris) is likely to lose and that’s pretty much what happened here.
Let’s assume Nikki Haley had become the Republican nominee and Biden had not withdrawn.In my view, she would have won fairly easily.
Indeed the only reason this contest was really close was Trump personally.If the Republican candidate had been someone like Ohio Governor Mike Dewine or SD Senator John Thune As well as Nikki?The Republican would have prevailed for the reasons previously alluded to.
Were there those who voted against Harris because she was a woman? Yeah sure ,but was that the main reason for her loss disdaining all other issues?
No.
Look at the numbers……
The MAIN group who she lost WAS MALE voters…
I do list other contributing factors
I looked at them.
So what? The majority of Men almost always vote Republican.
Once again,blaming Harris’ s defeat on being a woman is simplistic.
And I Stand by our view which has been seconded in several online pieces
Democrats are 0-2 on this
Yes we all know about you “ standing by your view.”
How many male nominees have also been rejected in the past? It is a myopic argument.
Hillary was an immensely flawed candidate.
Harris was a very imperfect candidate who did many things wrong in the campaign, after being put in a difficult position late in the game.
Regardless, even if she had run a flawless campaign, it is darn near impossible to get around the fact that you were #2 to a President whom only 40 percent approved, and who you said you would have not done anything differently from.
Democrats lost, and lost bigger than could have been anticipated, whether “fairly” not not, the American people resoundingly viewed the Biden Administration as a failure.
He had a good first few months. Then the Afghanistan debacle happened, and he took no responsibility for that. Then Covid got worse again, and even after it got better, the inflation remained. They went into office determined to do everything completely different on the border from Trump because they could and because they viewed his policies as so horrible. While many of his border policies were horrible, the Biden policies led to massive illegal immigration, and some prominent examples of violent crimes and murders that took place and got politically exploited. Democrats refused for a very long time to even admit there was a major problem at the border.
About two years ago, the American people decided that Joe Biden, who was already old, was starting to decline cognitively. Some of what was said about him was exaggerated but Democrats tried to ignore this problem and pretend he would be just fine to be President until 2029.
Democrats from Day 1 to to Election Day never grasped how unpopular Biden had become and how badly people wanted “change”, any sort of change, when there was plenty of evidence to show they could have.
Very good summary on Biden
Sure would like to make it a post
Males are normally…..
Both parties from the jump
TWO Strong Democratic women….
My point IS most other Democracies have had women leaders at some point
This one can’t and won’t
Don’t be so hard on yourself SE.
We have all made our share of mistaken election calls.
Hell I was wrong!
I thought in the end she might pull it out and it wasn’t really a tossup.Trump has apparently won a pretty solid victory.
If I was you? I would hang around?Actually I admired your research into all the candidates and the states.Far more than I did!You made some misinterpretations.We all did.
But if you decide to leave, keep at it.Ive been through lots of elections( I even vaguely remember Eisenhowers landslide over Adlai Stevenson in 1956).Regardless, good luck to you.
I’ll have further comments later.
1. Biden, a male, would have lost by more
2. A different Republican would have won the votes of more women
3. It is definitely worth considering if some traditional Democrat voters, including those who went heavily for Obama twice and Biden in 2020 do have qualms about voting for a woman. This adds a different dimension to the traditional gender gap. These are male and female voters alike and many of them are them are black and Latino. A lot of black and Latino voters did not vote this cycle.
4. As for some men, frankly Trump, and Trump alone has proven he can win the votes of many who would otherwise not have voted or who would otherwise be expected to vote for a Democrat.
People, especially blue-collar or working class men, including increasing numbers of Latinos, and African-Americans are attracted to Trump’s personality. They have become incredibly disenchanted with the “establishment” and view Trump as their champion. It is a big middle finger to the “elite.” They look at is in the classic economic class struggle battle of the haves vs have nots and see Trump on their side. The more people “go after” him, they think the powerful are also going after them.
Good points CG…….
Trump with his whining and crying gets sympathy from the sucker’s
In regards to Israel and Gaza, and in relation to Michigan and other voters nationwide, Democrats walked on egg-shells around the issue because they were scared of young leftists as well as Muslim-Americans not supporting them in the way they needed. It was the main reason why Shapiro was not picked for VP.
Ultimately, these young voters and Muslim-American voters in Michigan at least, still sat it out. All the while, Trump has seemingly improved on his Jewish-American support by 50 percent. I said that part could be coming.
For some voters, especially young leftists and some Muslim-Americans in Michigan, there is nothing short of outright abandonment of our ally Israel, was good enough. They were not strategic. They simply did not care. This should not be a surprise. Segments of our population who will rationalize, or even in some cases justify suicide bombings and attacks in the Middle East in the name of “liberation” will have no qualms about doing the political version of suicide in American elections.
Apparently, I got something wrong. I went to check to see if I could see the exit poll data for Jewish-Americans and according to that, it was 79-21 for Harris. If true, I find that very surprising. That would easily be the worst Trump has ever performed among Jewish-Americans. I saw an anecdote online saying something very different and it appears to be completely wrong.
All this though speaks even more about how Arab-Americans abandoned Democrats. Many voted for Trump on cultural issues too. They do not exactly like “woke” policies and being mad over Israel only gave them an excuse.
I would have to see verification but it was mentioned that Harris ran an extraordinaly weak third in Dearborn Michigan, well behind Trump and Jill Stein.
I am kind of skeptical on that exit poll number. It was only a sample from certain states.
Biden got himself stuck between a rock and hard place on the conflict……
The Arabs or the Jew’s vote
He see’s Hamas as a terrorist group….
Some in the Middle East see a group trying to to get its land back….
The destruction of the area makes images that draws anger even in Israel….
But it has come apparent that Hamas and now Hezbollah. Are deliberately hiding among citizens…..
The IDF will now strike WHEREVER they see a fighter thus making matters worse
There are bad moves by ALL sides…
Trump has ALREADY spoken to Netanyahu
And told him he wants the conflict to end….
Let’s see if he gets what he wants….
As President it didn’t always work that way
Hamas is a terrorist group. This should not be a point of contention.
Biden feels that way and has Israel’s back
It cost Harris Michigan….
Trump IS gonna try and end the conflict and turn THAT back on Biden and the Democrats
Trump could do the same thing for the Ukraine conflict……
Zelensky is already kissing up to Trump hoping that will stop him from selling the Ukraine down the river to Putin
There was also a lot written in recent days from leftists and Muslim-Americans saying they were offended that Harris campaigned with Liz Cheney and accepted the endorsement of Dick Cheney. They pledged to not vote for Harris because of it. Before the election, one might think perhaps they were just bluffing. After the results came in, it appears they meant it.
I give Liz Cheney tremendous credit for what she did, but it did not matter to people voting on the economy. Neither did all the non-stop focus on “reproductive rights.”
Based on the Liz Cheney example though, I think we can say that it would have made absolute zero difference if George W. Bush or Mitt Romney had officially endorsed Harris. They might very well have voted for her privately, but their open support would have done more harm than good. It would have only played into Trump’s successful narrative that all the big-shots in the establishment were for her and against him.
Final thing to mention is Trump owes his victory to Alvin Bragg more than any other one person.
Bull Shit …….
Bragg gets Props……
A criminal was caught and convicted…..
Donald John Trump HASA ‘Rap’ sheet
On the form’s his lawyers will probably lie (A crime) and neglect to list his felony history
“Catching” him and convicting him helped him get elected. Massively.
Gavin Newsom would have lost.
Any liberal male who praised the policies of Joe Biden and promised to continue them would have lost.
Being a woman by itself is far down the list for why she lost. Not knowing how to appeal to men’s issues and concerns is a big reason why she lost.
Nikki Haley vs. Kamala Harris or Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden would have been an even larger Republican victory, albeit one with a smaller overall vote turnout, because there are voters who only show up for Trump, just like there were voters who only show up for Obama.
Cult of personality played a role for both of the most recent twice elected.
You know I thought he was gonna jump in…
He’s also had some brush ups that would leave open political wounds