Democratic leaning Public Policy Polling is out with a post convention polling view……
In the last week and a half PPP has done over 30 polls both statewide and in various districts in Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas.
That represents a pretty broad swath of the country and in the polls that included the Presidential race Kamala Harris is doing an average of one point better than Joe Biden did in the same places.
That’s great news for Democrats! If that held across the board she would win by a commanding 5 point margin in the popular vote and win the Electoral College 303-235 while just falling the slightest bit short in North Carolina.
In 2020 81% of Republicans voted in North Carolina and only 75% of Democrats did- if the excitement around Kamala Harris evens that out it’s easy to imagine a world where it narrowly flips blue too and Harris wins 319-219. A blow out!
So Democrats should feel good right? Yes…but very cautiously so. Right now Harris is running a point ahead of Biden 2020. But let’s say that instead there was a small shift in the race and instead she actually ran a point behind Biden 2020. That would flip Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin into the Trump column and give him a 272-266 Electoral College win even as Harris won the popular vote by 3 points.
Make it a 1.2 point shift in Trump’s direction and Pennsylvania goes red too for a 291-247 win…..
Well,yeah, there are lots of “ possibilities.”
They are currently pointing to a Nice Harris WIN NOW
Despite your doubt’s
Anyone who says they have no doubt at who the winner is going to be is an idiot.
Oh ,and if the shoe fits,
Wear it!
LOT OF US Jack…..
LOT
You Gotta Believe ‼️
Jack is either declining like Biden or he’s willfully spewing right wing propaganda. Take your pick.
We can deduce fron trends that Harris is favored. Obviously, we shouldn’t take it for granted. But to deny the obvious at this point is a fool’s errand.
*from trends
Yes Im well known for “ spewing right wing propaganda.”
This from a one who was concerned that Marianne Williamson get a fair count ,implying of course the Democrats were going to steal votes from her.
Dumb, plain old Dumb.
I’m not explaining the non issue for the second time in one week. All I will say is that we’re glad you stepped aside, President Biden. Now someone who can actually defeat James in an argument can run the country.
I will NOT RUN if asked
But would be flattered and would push getting more people to comment here
FYI…….
It ain’t just me folks……
Decision Desk HQ Presidential Forecast (8/26):
Probabilities:
🟦 Harris: 54.6%
🟥 Trump: 45.4%
Democrats+9% shift since Biden dropped out.
Electoral College Forecast:
🟦 Harris: 241
🟥 Trump: 219
🟨 Tossups: 78
Average Electoral Vote Projection:
🟦 Harris: 276
🟥 Trump: 262
Tossups:
🟨 Arizona: 51% Trump
🟨 Pennsylvania: 53% Harris
🟨 Wisconsin: 58% Harris
🟨 Nevada: 60% Harris
🟨 North Carolina: 64% Trump
🟨 Georgia: 65% Trump
elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/…
How anybody can look at those statistical models and say they have “no doubt” is beyond me.
Harris has probably about a 52 percent chance of reaching 270 EV. Now, that is a whole lot better than the 25% chance Joe Biden had a few months ago, but that is very much far from a sure thing. At this point in the calendar, is less than it was for Biden four years ago and less than it was for Hillary eight years ago.
I certainly agree Harris IS BETTER than Biden……
Hands DOWN…..
25% chance for Biden after the debate
Even the sympathetic http://www.electoral-vote.com has dropped its poll of state polls from a clear (if momentary) Harris lead of 277 votes to a knife-edge 262-260 with North Carolina’s 16 Electors the decider.
Real Clear Politics’ No-Tossup map stays steady at 287-251 Trump.
No chickens counted before their time to hatch.
Watch over the next week witrh RFK Jr. out….
U all see West’s list of state’s DQed out grow?
The post cites ONE outfit….
But the national has her ahead…
And the swings have her WINNING and off by less than a state….
These numbers ARE CERTAINLY NOT what Trump wants or needs ….
And some polls ARE bounce ones….
One last….
Harris IS TRENDING UP…..
Trump HAS trended DOWN.….
Some people need to put their poms poms away and run through the tape. Hillary was up by more in 2016 at this point.
I assume Democrats have learned their lesson about taking various swing states completely for granted, but this blue MAGA “I have no doubt whatsoever….” talk is really off base. Red MAGA also is saying online they have no doubt whatsoever that Trump will win.
The comparison to Hillary’s run is ridiculous….
She did NOT campaign anything like Harris
Trump was just 70
He could walk and talk coherently
Half the people who said that they would vote for her hated her
She was the first woman to run
And she ignored any danger signs
All political junkies love to look at polls but in both 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated support for Trump. That is a fact.
Difference is that both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden had been in the political arena since the 70’s and has big vulnerabilities which could be exploited. Harris, by contrast, has been involved in politics not even 20 years. Her weakest spot is her prosecutorial record, which is more of a turn off to party base voters than to swing voters.
If anything, her support is understated.. I think Trump underperforms the 44-46% range he currently polls around, and I’d expect Harris to exceed Obama’s 2008 percentage(she’s already hitting 50-51% in several polls) and possibly exceed 100 million votes, versus around 73 million for Trump.
And the comedy show continues.
And polling outfits have say they have adjusted on Trump polling feedback
Democrats have out voted REPUBLICANS for the last 3 years
They ain’t gonna all the sudden lost that trend now
Expect ally post Biden