I have mixed feelings about Nate….
He was a SOLID Biden HATER until the President quit….
And he took a LOT of grief on line…..
He left FiveThirtyEight after Disney moved in…..
He’s now freelancing…..
That said?
Good News IS GOOD News, eh?
His forecast model now has Harris ahead in the national polling AND winning the election thru the Electoral College….The margin is small. (50.5 % to 48.8%)..But It’s a start with Harris trending Up and Donald Trump now seemingly trying to play catch up…
Last update: 1:00 p.m, Sunday, August 4: After another day of strong polling, Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since the forecast launched. Although the race is still a toss-up, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in our national polling average, and has a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college.
Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election?
Well, honestly, we don’t know — but we can give you our best probabilistic guess. This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model.1
The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020. Other changes from 2020 are documented here. If you’ve received this post by email or are viewing it on the Substack app, we strongly recommend that you instead use the web version for interactive charts. Charts in the app don’t update when we add new data, so switch over to your browser to see our most up-to-date forecast…..