Nate Silver: “In polls that test the ballot both with and without RFK, which our model diligently tracks as part of the adjustment it makes for his presence on the ballot, we find Trump losing an average of 3.0 points when Kennedy is included, and Harris losing 2.4 points.”
“In other words, he takes more of his votes than Trump (about 55 percent) than Harris (45 percent)… Given that he has just 4 percent of the vote now, having Trump regain 55 percent of those votes would only make a net difference of 0.4 points instead.”
“And there are some other complications. One is that polls that include RFK Jr. usually also include other third-party candidates, like Jill Stein and the Libertarian Chase Oliver. Some of RFK’s votes would probably go to those candidates instead, rather than one of the major party candidates.”
Latest is that Kennedy VP Nicole Shanahan says there cannot be a Trump endorsement until he publicly disables Operation Warp Speed. The effort to develop a Covid vaccine that started on Trunps watch.
Should say *Disavows *
I am imagining that whatever is going on behind the scenes, Cheryl Hines is somehow involved.
By the way, the headline of this post contradicts the data and premise that is presented.
RFK Jr dropping out and endorsing Trump helps him, at least marginally. Probably only marginally.
Nate Silver begs to differ with ya CG…
You have comprehension issues.
It will split across multiple directions, not exclusively to Trump’s benefit. Somewhere around a 40-40 split between Trump and Harris, with Libertarian Chase Oliver taking the rest of RFK Jr’s support sounds fair.
He is endorsing Trump.
What Joseph P, Kennedy Sr. has wrought on America all these generations.
Indeed….
Even some family memebers ain’t with him….
Weird finds Weird
Kennedy is comparing Biden to Putin.
I doubt that Vlad would appreciate the comparison to Biden.
Kennedy is encouraging voters in red and blue states to keep voting for him.
what a clown.
So diluting his Trunp endorsement even further.
Trump’s gain from this will be negligible and it will only further cement Trump/Vance as the “weird” ticket
Months ago I predicted RFK Jr would be out of the race before the firsr ballots were cast and that the total 3rd party vote would be more in line with 2020 (@2%) than 2016 (6%).
Props Scott
Kennedy blaming US “necons” for forcing Putin to invade Ukraine.
Trump accepting his endorsement is a signal that Trump will abandon Ukraine and allow Russia to take it over.
REALLY CG on Ukraine?????
Kennedy says Harris is a “bellicose” and “belligerent neo-con.”
Damn, I may have to vote for her.
It sounds like Kennedy is now saying Trump has agreed to place him or one of his key aides as head of the FDA.
Now RFK is going on and on about obesity.
I guess Trump knows how to fix that.
RFK says vaccines cause autism.
Kennedy is just leaving all the crazy out on field in this statement. All of it.
Trump is going to stand on a stage with him tonight and gush over him because Trump is desperate. He probably will walk away from Operation Warp Speed.
He is now saying Big Ag is turning kids trans through the food supply.
The Kennedy Family issued a statement calling RFKs endorsement a “ betrayal of the values our father and family hold most dear.It is a sad ending to a sad story.”