70 days out from the November 5th Presidential Election…..
Several outfits ARE projecting a Harris/Walz win RIGHT NOW …..
AND?
Some are talking about a possible sweep (Unlikely) by Democrats being possible in both chambers of the Congress……
For Congress things are more fluid….
The replacement of Vice President Harris for President Biden at the top of the ticket has tilted the races for the White House and Congress in the direction of Democrats, though all three fights will be close, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ)/The Hill’s updated analysis of its election forecast.
Harris has a 55 percent chance of defeating former President Trump and winning the White House, a sharp turn up from Biden’s 44 percent chance of winning when he left the race and endorsed Harris on July 21.
Democrats also have better chances of winning the House and Senate with Harris as their standard-bearer, though they remain the underdogs in both cases.
The GOP remains the big favorite to take back the Senate majority, though the DDHQ/The Hill analysis puts the chance at 67 percent, compared to 78 percent when Biden dropped out.
The House race is seen as much closer, with the GOP having a 56 percent chance of retaining its majority. That’s slightly down from 61 percent when Biden was the Democratic standard-bearer….
Just Saying,,,,,
Harris Would Be Clear Favorite If Election Held Today
Nate Silver: “Kamala Harris leads by 3.8 points in our national polling average and would be a clear favorite in an election held today — but you can see the effects of the model’s convention bounce adjustment in why November’s result is still projected at basically 50/50. This is the period when we’d expect Harris to be at the very height of her convention bounce, and the over/under line for polls conducted during this period is something like 4 or 4.5 points; better numbers than that will tend to help her in the forecast, while worse ones will tend to hurt her.”
“The model expects the convention bounce to dissipate over the course of roughly three weeks. So a poll showing Harris ahead by 4 points in a week or two would likely be a net positive for her. But for right now, the bar is set pretty high.”
Harris Edges Trump Nationally
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds Kamala Harris edging Donald Trump nationally in a multi-candidate field, 46% to 45%.
In a head-to-head match up, Harris leads 47% to 46%.
Umichvoter@Twitter
New FOX News polls
Georgia 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 48%
Nevada 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 48%
Arizona 🟦 Harris 50% 🟥 Trump 49%
North Carolina 🟥 Trump 50% 🟦 Harris 49%
The Trend’
IS STILL…….
THE TREND