By only a hair….
But he’s actually the Stronger choice RIGHT NOW according to the polling….
A new SurveyUSA/FairVote ranked choice poll of 2,050 likely voters in six swing states finds that Kamala Harris is the strong favorite among Democrats and independent respondents to replace Joe Biden should he withdraw from the race. Among all likely voters, Biden performs the strongest against Donald Trump of all potential nominees (44%-44%). Harris performs the best of all non-Biden options (Trump 46%-Harris 42%).
Toplines and key findings include:
- Harris has both deep and broad support. She is the first choice of 37% of likely Democratic and independent voters; she continues to consolidate support in a ranked choice voting tabulation. Harris ultimately wins with 68% and her strongest opponent, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, receives 32%.
- Harris is a strong consensus candidate, ranked in the top 3 choices by 56% of Democratic and independent voters. Other candidates commonly ranked in voters’ top three choices include Whitmer (31%) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (29%).
- Harris is the most popular first-choice candidate for both women and men, across every racial group, and across every age group among likely Democratic and independent voters.
- In a ranked choice poll for a Harris running mate, Buttigieg bests Whitmer 52-48%, within the poll’s credibility interval. Buttigieg also has the most first-choice support.
The poll allowed respondents to rank up to seven choices for a potential Democratic presidential nominee and vice-presidential nominee. Ranked choice polling provides more information on voter preferences, including voters’ backup choices, head-to-head matchups of all candidates, and which candidates are strong “consensus” picks (ranked in voters’ top 3 or top 5 choices).
The poll is available here, with additional analysis below….
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All respondents, regardless of party ID, assessed possible Democratic nominees compared to Donald Trump and other candidates.
Biden and Trump are in a dead heat in the combined six swing states in this poll. Both poll at 44%, with 7% of respondents planning to vote for someone else and 5% undecided.
Among alternatives to Biden, Harris performs the best but still falls 4 points short of Trump….