Nato Cohn in the NY Times points to the divide between engaged and engaged voters….
Biden owns the ones engaged in Who and What Trump has done and IS……..
Doanld Trump owns the others….
The Cohn picture has problems for Biden….
(Everybody does NOT vote, a situation Cohn fronts in support for Trump…That isn’t gonna happen)
Who is carrying the perception of a bad ‘Economy ‘ which seems to override some voters concerns about a ex-president that IS a convicted felon, sexual offender that has almost a Billion Dollar in. civil fine’s hanging over his head in addtion to 3 MORE criminal trials….
Cohn seems to hint that the constant support that Trump gets in social media has actually replaced face to face retail media contacts…And that abortion and democracy are NOT ‘bellweather ‘ issues for some American voters….
The Trump on-line information comes at a shrill, and is mostly simply made up , off the wall Bull Shit….
But it seems to be working for ‘disengaged’ voters who answer pollsters….
Cohn like this Dog thinks if the engaged voters come home?
Joe Biden would keep his job….
The question IS?
Will they?
In a reversal of one of the most familiar patterns in American politics, it appears that Donald J. Trump, not President Biden, would stand to gain if everyone in the country turned out and voted.
In New York Times/Siena College polls over the last year, Mr. Biden holds a wide lead over Mr. Trump among regular primary and midterm voters, yet he trails among the rest of the electorate, giving Mr. Trump a lead among registered voters overall.
The pattern is the latest example of how the Trump brand of conservative populism has transformed American politics. His candidacy galvanized liberals to defend democracy and abortion rights, giving Democrats the edge in low-turnout special and midterm elections. Yet at the same time, early polls suggest, many less engaged and infrequent voters have grown deeply dissatisfied with Mr. Biden.
The disengaged voters do not necessarily like Mr. Trump, the polling shows. But they’re motivated by pocketbook issues, more desiring of fundamental changes to the political system, and far less concerned about democracy as an issue in the election. Many low-turnout voters — notably including many who consider themselves Democrats — now say they’ll back Mr. Trump.
This unusual turnout dynamic is one of the central forces shaping the 2024 campaign. It helps explain why recent polls and election results seem so divergent, and why Mr. Trump has gained among young and nonwhite voters, who are less likely to vote than older white voters. It creates a challenge for the campaigns, who are finding that time-tested strategies for mobilizing irregular voters may not work quite the same way as they did in the past.
With five months to go until the election, there’s still time for less engaged voters to tune in and swing back toward Mr. Biden. Many infrequent voters aren’t yet tuned into the race, and their preferences appear highly volatile. If the polls are right, they’ve swung 20 percentage points since 2020, but some changed their answers when re-interviewed in the wake of Mr. Trump’s felony conviction in New York. Even if Mr. Trump holds his edge among the disengaged, it’s not clear many of these low-turnout voters will ultimately show up to vote.
But if they do vote, Mr. Trump would stand to gain — something unimaginable for a Republican as recently as a few years ago.
In the Obama era, Democrats’ electoral fortunes seemed to depend on drawing young and nonwhite voters to the polls. The party excelled when Barack Obama helped mobilize that turnout in the presidential years of 2008 and 2012, but was pummeled in the low-turnout 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.
Even today, the assumption that Democrats benefit from higher turnout remains deeply embedded in the American political consciousness, from the progressive dream to mobilize a new coalition of voters to new Republican laws to restrict voting….
…
The evidence for Democrats’ strength among high-frequency voters has regularly been on display on Tuesday nights, as they have cheered the results of special elections. While Mr. Trump has struggled to unify highly engaged Republican voters, Democrats have excelled in such elections, in an environment that might appear unfriendly: The electorate is disproportionately white, half of voters are seniors, and virtually no young people show up at all….
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On paper, many of the disengaged voters behind Mr. Biden’s weakness look as if they should be loyal Democrats. Many are registered as Democrats and still identify as Democratic-leaning voters. They support abortion rights, back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate and are from Democratic-leaning constituencies, like young, Black and Hispanic voters.
But their attitudes are more complicated. They are much more likely to say the economy is “poor” than Democratic primary voters, and they’re much likelier to disapprove of Mr. Biden’s job performance. They want fundamental changes to America, not merely a promised return to normalcy. Some even mistakenly hold Mr. Biden more responsible than Mr. Trump for the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade — perhaps out of a sense that the president should have been able to do something about it.
They get their news from social media, not MSNBC…..