Media screaming about President Biden NOT being popular are repeated over and OVER….
But they tend to NOT mention that the President’s numbers are kinda in the SAME range as the guy Biden BEAT in 2020 and is doing a rematch….
President Biden approval/disapproval 6/12/2024…….37.6%/57.%
Donald Trump approval/disapproval 6/12/2024……..41.3%/53.8%
Fox News is back to promoting the idea that Biden will quit the presidential race and then Michelle Obama will take his place.
Wishful Thinking……
Just a diversion…….
Hunter is guilty……
They ain’t getting anything from THAT….
Wishful thinking by whom?
The last thing the people who are making the crazy prediction want to see happen is for Joe Biden to be replaced by Michelle Obama.
It’s not going to happen, but wouldn’t a lot of Democrats want it to?
This is what the 8th or 9th time they’ve floated that?
Michelle Obama has never displayed an ounce of Presidential ambition.
But good ole FOX. Gotta keep the racist grampies scared that they might have to see a black woman become President before they take a dirt nap!
I do not know who on Fox is saying it, but the people on the right who think that Biden might be replaced on the ticket are worried about such a thing happening. They believe, and for good reason, that Biden is the only Democrat Trump might be able to beat.
Yea Michelle Obama a Black woman they can go after like Tish James, Fani Willis and Kamala Harris….
Fits the pattern, eh?
Are you seriously suggesting that Michelle Obama would not be a stronger general election candidate against Donald Trump than Joe Biden?
If so, I happen to disagree (not that I think she is running.) Others here will probably keep their opinion on that to themselves.
It looks like it was Rep. Andy Ogles who brought this up while being interviewed on Fox Business Channel. He said Hunter Biden’s conviction could be an excuse for Biden to decide to spend more time with the family.
Obviously, this is not going to happen. However, there is supposed to be a debate in a couple of weeks and *if* Biden bombs it, there will be a lot of Democrats looking to Biden to step aside in favor of someone else on the ticket.
Yeah Republicans said that about rhe State of the Union too.
Then when Biden exceeded those expectations they said he was on cocsine.
He exceeded the expectations of Democrats. It not seem to do much to move the needle overall.
And Biden will definitely not be on cocaine for the debate, just like he was not for the SOTU, but he also is not going to have a teleprompter with the words he wants to speak written on it.
In fact Joe Biden HAS held on steady…..
He has NOT gone down , but inched up….
As I point out in the post?
The approval numbers aren’t much different and the neither are the Dis Approvals…..
Biden IS with the MOE in the swing states needed to post ANOTRHER win…..
Silver points out that polling COULD be off by as much as 9.7% points…..
Sure I’m reaching….
But I’m also confident that Biden WILL carry the swing state he did back in 2020…..
And could switch NC for Ga…..
Post SOTU, his numbers went up very slightly and then started going down again. As has been mentioned, they are lower now than they have been before. He still could beat Trump though, because Trump is Trump. Going to be a white knuckle ride though.
You folks also may be missing out on just how ugly, ugly, ugly, the DNC in Chicago is likely to look on television.
Of course, if there is a debate in two weeks, and something wild happens, that could very much impact the race.
If by ” needle” you mean polls I’ll take election results over them. Democrats again overperforning last night even in an overwhelmingly white rural district.
The guy who wrote the Romney book thinks Mitt could endorse Biden in September or October..
The Drmocraric nominee in OH 6 overperforned the 2022 Dem nominee by 20 points even though he only spent like 10 grand.
2022 was against an incumbent though, so that skews things. It was an open seat special election. This November, the new Congressman probably wins that district by a lot more than 10 points. Republicans will say they spent virtually no money on that race. I would have expected more than a 10 point margin though to be sure.
Another special election coming up in Colorado later this month, with a gadfly placeholder candidate for Lauren Boebert running there. In theory, that one should be closer.
Scott IS correct….
Democrats HAVE consistently OVER PERFORMED…..
Furthermore?
Abortion swings DEMOCRATIC…..
I won’t for a convicted felon DOES show Indies and Undecided swinging FOR Biden/Democrats….
Biden ‘s backwards looking for down ballot coattails looks possible…..
Lastly?
Biden and Democrats are building a get out the vote field organization…..
Trump has been in court spending on legal service’s NOT a campaign….
The voters we’re talking g about Biden voters…..
NOT Trump voters…..
They’ll come home…..
Well, as long as you are sure of that, everything must be sunshine and rainbows for the incumbent.
special elections are often weird.It was a very low turnout, but Republicans should definitely take notice and admit that they have been under performing polls at actual elections.
I don’t think NC is in reach, but hopefully the Democrats can beat the lunatic the Republicans put up for Governor.
Arizona and Georgia look like hard keeps for the Democrats, as does Nevada now also. Republicans are looking at recent polling and think they have a shot in a place like Virginia. If that is true, the race would be over early on Election Night.
Maybe Biden gets WI, MI, and PA. What would that make the EC math? Might it really come down to the 1 vote out of Omaha?
I STILL find it hard to believe that in several states the US Senator’s that ARE Democratic are AHEAD a good amount and Biden is behind……
I just do N OT believe that voters will split their vote in those states….
They do. Republican down ballot candidates in 2020 did a lot better than Trump did. Voters split their ballot, largely voting against an incumbent President.
2020 was a different year as Democratic down ballot candidates did very little in peeson canvassing and campaigning due to Covid.
Republicans were at an advantage there as they didn’t give a shit about their people dying.
Case in point Herman Cain. Shucky Ducky!
The point is Republicans down ballot overperformed Trump in 2020. The polls showed they would.
That looks at play now this year between Biden and downballot Democrats.
New poll our of Florida shows Biden closer to winning there than Trump is in Virginia (down 4 points). Same poll shows Rick Scott in a dead heat.
If Florida’s EVs fall rom the R column it’ll be an early election night too.
Do I think that’s likely at this point? No.
But with abortion rights on rhe ballot and polling a whopping 69% it could swing the state back a bit from it’s recent right ward trend.
I saw a poll last week from Virginia showing a dead heat or 44-44 or something.
Maybe it’s a bad poll. In 2022, there were all sorts of new polling companies putting out glorious polls for Republicans, that seem to have only existed to get them to be excited online about the polling.
I did see that Florida poll. It had Trump with something like 45% of the African American vote. If that were true it would be HUGE. But the primaries showed almost no change in GOP participation in heavily black precincts.
If Republicans are going to triple or quadruple their share of the African American vote his year wouldn’t there ar least by signs of that in the actual votes cast so far this year ?
Sorry. I meant Virginia poll above.
‘The point is Republicans down ballot overperformed Trump in 2020. The polls showed they would.’….
Yes, Trump was more unpopular than a generic Republican and right now, Biden is more unpopular than a generic Democrat.
Unless things change down the road, it looks like a lot of Democrats are going to cast protest votes for RFK.
RFK Jr??????
Most Minority and young voters do NOT have ANY Idea who the guy IS…..
But the media does and wants the horse race thing, eh?
There are a lot of Democrats who love the name Kennedy and what it means to them.
But young voters are drawn to him because he is “different.” In a close election, every little bit may matter where he is on the ballot, and for now, I think he is hurting Biden more than Trump.
Plus, you will have your Cornell West and Jill Stein in some states too.
A lot of young people are all about what is “cool” and Joe Biden is just not “cool.”
Twenty minutes after I typed that some young people like RFK because he is “different”, it was just literally a Chyron on CNN. Maybe there are a lot of people reading here!
He, he, he…..
Told ya so!…..
It’s just we’re on the ball, eh?
That’s your take on young voters? That they want someone “cool”? Laughable and out of touch in a post Roe US. That abortion rights has changed the landscape seems to have not crossed your 2004 mind.
I’ll tell you who RFK Jr. is pullling. The young males who listen to Joe Rogan and Barstool Sports. Those are Trump voters or non-voters. They weren’t going to Biden anyway.
I’ve noticed a shift in your posts. I predict you’ll find a way to back Trump just like Nikki did. Maybe you can get those GOP license plates back!
Oh, get over yourself Scott. I was being very nice to you.
if you think there is ever a universe where I would ever possibly support Donald Trump, you have become completely insane. I think you actually know better, although clearly, you wish I would support Trump, because you need to make anybody who has a disagreement with you into an enemy. How sad.
To many young voters, Biden is just too old and too unhip. I am not at all saying that Biden is sure to lose and I assure you that I very much DO NOT want Trump to win, whether you choose to believe that or not.
But it seems like you have decided to join james on the sidelines with pom-poms and thinking that everything is fine,. I do not know who is going to win the election, but the two of you seem to be denying reality.
No CG?
I’M SERIOUS
There ARE TONS of hill for Donald Trump to climb…..
HE LOST last time….
He’s dragging a shitload of negatives….
Just because the media WANTS a horse race does NOT mean there IS one…..
BOTH guys are unpopular…..
Trump leads by MOE margins in Blue state’s….
And Trump AGAIN?
Is MORE Fucked up in the head then he ever was….
The crowds are NOT there for him like he wants u to think and he’s bouncing around on policy everyday like a yo-yo…..
CG?
He’s a Hot Mess….
But GREAT entertainment….
That’s about ALL for Me….
I know you don’t “want” Trump to win, but I think you want Biden to lose more.
I don’t know how anyone could read your posts and not see that you are waving the pom poms in response to any bad news about Biden.
Neither candidate is popular. Both are old and “unhip” to most young people–if that’s even a word that’s still used.
People will need to make a choice. One isn’t a felon that rants on and on about sharks and electric boats.
You know very little Scott.
I think Biden is a horrible President. That should not surprise you. But I definitely want Trump to lose. So, that leaves me with no other option than to want Biden to win.. I think he has a very difficult race ahead of him. jack and DSD and bdog have said the same thing here.
james, does not even think it is a “horserace.” Your other Facebook friend who shows up here at times has said “Biden will win and it won’t even be close.” You seem to be of that mindset also. Maybe you are right. If it means Trump losing and being embarrassed, I hope you are right. Not one person who posts here wants Trump to win nor has ever wanted Trump to win.
As you know, I do not post here much. In fact, very few people post here at all. If i were not here posting a bit the last couple of days, you would not be here posting either Scott. We both realize that.
So, if it bothers your little sensitive soul so much to hear a contrary opinion as to what could happen in the election and the vulnerabilities and problems that Biden is having, I will refrain from posting here.
This is very common on political blogs. On pro-Trump sights, they will not want to hear anybody who might suggest Trump could lose. So, you are being as sensitive as they are, but you are choosing to live in a bubble. The choice is yours.
There were not really a lot of contested Republican primaries this cycle to say the least. More people vote in general elections than primaries. It is hard to explain exactly why Trump is doing so much better with minorities in polls. He definitely has an appeal that the establishment Republicans of elections past did not and it has shifted a lot of voting behavior.
He, he, he…..
CG?
Donald Trump ain’t gonna OVER Perform with ANY MINORITY group come November….
Check your stats….
They HAVE and WIIl come home to Biden over 60% like they ALWAYS do….
Donald Trump IS NOT their friend and the VAST Majority KNOW THAT…..
They ain’t stupid like Trump is try make u think they ARE…
If Biden only gets 60 percent of the African-American vote, he is in huge trouble. He needs over 85 percent.
Saying Biden needs 85 percent of the black vote to win assumes an old model that has Republicans winning a much higher percentage of the white suburban vote that has been trending Democrat since Trump and ramped up post Roe being overturned.
More like 80%.
This recent poll isn’t entirely rosy for Biden with black voters but compare the 42% who said they would “definitely” vote to reelect him to the 4% who would “definitely” vote for Trump.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/most-black-americans-continue-support-joe-biden
I seem to recall that while Trump increased his support among African Americans slightly from 2016 to 2020 there were polls leading up to 2020 that showed him doing much better.
Could that be happening again? We’ll see.
Republicans are leading Democrats 31-10 tonight in a sporting event.
Baseball, not football. Can’t they call this thing. They need to play all 9 innings? It’s in the 7th.
Steve Garvey is the Republican 1st base coach. I guess he is too old to try to swing a bat. He probably won’t be asked to be there next year.
Guys?
Every 4 years they roll out a poll in jersey that has the GOPer running for President in the race…..
AND?
EVERY 4 year the Dem’s WIN the place hands down…..
Trump is NOT gonna win PA, Wis, Mich , Ariz and provably NOT Nev or NC…..
AGAIN…..
After Sept , which may feature a Federal trial for Trump?
The margin amounts of minority , young and pro-abortion and anti-convicted felon vote will assure Joe Biden a second term….
It will be sloppy…..
But they’ll come home….
You are sleepwalking into a dangerous predicament. I hope his campaign sees things differently than you are at the moment.
So, now james seems to be saying that there is not even a “horse race” in terms of the current Presidential general election.
Biden is just like Secretariat. He’s leaving everyone in his dust. It’s very obvious.
I was literally posting on here yesterday that the Hunter Biden verdict was positive news for Joe Biden politically. Two weeks ago, I literally posted on here that Trump being convicted was worse for him politically than if he had been acquitted. I am calling it as I see it.