It’s only 2% points….
But it IS a LEAD for the President….
And?
Something to Remember?
Both of these guys are NOT the most popular politicians….
- Trump (54%) leads Biden (42%) among independent voters. However, Biden (49%) and Trump (47%) are closely matched among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates.
- Trump (44%) edges Biden (40%) among registered voters in a multi-candidate field. Kennedy has the support of 8% to 3% for Stein and 2% for West. Earlier this month, Biden (42%) and Trump (42%) were tied, with Kennedy receiving 11%, Stein garnering 2%, and West receiving 2%….
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Could “Hush Money” Verdict Impact Electorate?
While 67% of registered voters nationally say it makes no difference to their vote if Trump is found guilty in his “hush money” trial, 17% report they would be less likely to vote for him if he is convicted. 15% would be more likely to vote for Trump.
Conversely, 76% of voters say a not guilty verdict would not impact their vote. Nine percent would be less likely to vote for Trump, and 14% would me more likely to vote for him.
Trump (Still) Bests Haley
85% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say, if they could choose a Republican nominee for president now, they would back Trump. 14% would support Nikki Haley. Regardless of demographic group, Trump outpaces Haley with at least 74% of the Republican electorate.
Biden and Trump’s Favorable Ratings Remain Underwater
42% of Americans have a favorable impression of Biden, and 52% have an unfavorable view of him. This is little changed from early May, when Biden received a 40% positive score and a 54% negative rating.
Trump experiences similar ratings. 41% have a favorable opinion of Trump, and 54% have an unfavorable impression of the former president. Trump also experiences little movement in his rating since last time. In early May, Trump’s favorable rating was 39% and 56% of Americans had an unfavorable impression of him.
Biden’s Approval Rating Status Quo
Biden’s job approval rating has not moved since early May. 41% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing in office, and 54% disapprove. Six percent are unsure. 22% of Americans strongly approve of how Biden is doing in office, and 42% strongly disapprove.
Two-Thirds Solid in Their Choice for President
About two in three registered voters (66%) say they know for whom they plan to vote, and nothing will change their mind. 68% of both Biden and Trump supporters are firm in their commitment to their candidate. 25% of voters think they have a good idea of the candidate they will support but could change their mind. Seven percent have not yet made up their mind. An even greater proportion of those who say they definitely plan to vote in November (73%) say they are certain for whom they plan to vote…..
It’s still a close race, according to Nate Cohen at The New York Times
Perhaps Lost in the Polling: The Race for President Is Still Close
Though he trails in the polls, President Biden has mostly held his support among white voters. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin probably offer his clearest path to victory.
President Biden will be counting on Pennsylvania. He grew up in Scranton.Credit…Yuri Gripas for The New York Times
There’s no way around it: The news for President Biden hasn’t been great.
He has trailed in national and battleground state polls for months. His approval ratings are among the lowest on record for a first-term president. He’s struggling among young, Black and Hispanic voters. And all of this against an opponent who faces several criminal trials, including one that could have a verdict this week.
But the news is not all bad for Mr. Biden — or, at least, it’s not all that bad. The race is still pretty close. It’s close enough that he would have a very serious chance to win if the election were held tomorrow. And of course, the race won’t be held tomorrow: There are five-plus months to go for a possible Biden comeback.
Together, there’s a case for taking a glass-almost-half-full perspective on Mr. Biden’s chances. Right or wrong, it’s a case that maybe hasn’t gotten quite as much attention as it deserves.
The electoral map
How is the race close? Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Mr. Biden won those battleground states, he’d probably be re-elected as president. They would combine to give him exactly 270 electoral college votes provided he held everywhere he won by six percentage points or more in 2020. That means he could lose all of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and so on, and still win.
Yes, Donald J. Trump does lead most polls of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But the race is close in all three states.
In our recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls, Mr. Trump led by an average of one percentage point across the three states among likely voters. The 538 and RealClearPolitics polling averages both show Mr. Trump ahead by just one point across those states, and Mr. Trump doesn’t appear to lead by more than around two points in any of them.
As a consequence, Mr. Biden is within two points in states worth 270 electoral votes..
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