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This week, I look at whether the political punditocracy has vastly overrated four-times-indicted Donald Trump’s chances of regaining the presidency, pick the distinguished person of the week and share something different.
For starters, it is hardly good news for the party out of power when the election already revolves around the challenger’s fitness, rather than the incumbent’s performance. Past presidential challengers such as Mitt Romney, John McCain, John F. Kerry and Al Gore did not have the extra hurdle to prove they were sane, law-abiding and pro-democracy. Trump does, and he reinforces those concerns whenever he opens his mouth.
Sure, Trump might win in November. Tens of millions of people have been drawn into a fascist movement and have lost their grip on reality (as Romney has pointed out). But we should not confuse the unbreakable support Trump derives from cultist members with general election viability. Looking at the totality of the evidence, chances appear just as high that the former president will lose — and by a larger margin than he lost in 2020.
There is an excellent article in the New York Times as to why Nikki Haley is having such a hard time in S.C.
Previously I have mentioned her problems within the S.C. Republican Party.
Post coming up Jack….
RFK Jr is reportedly looking at running for the Libertarian nomination. This tells me they are having trouble getting on the ballot as an Independent.
I’m not sure the Libertarian Party–made up in no small part of Republicans who are weirdly knowledgeable about age of consent laws–will be receptive to someone who has strongly advocated government regulation to protect the environment. So this is a big gamble for RFK Jr. If he goes for the LP nomination and fails to get it that could be the end of his campaign.
The race IS the two oldtimers….
But 3rd parties could trim the margins against Biden….
Third parties can work both ways. In 2000, in the states outside Florida and maybe New Hampshire, the Nader and Buchanan vote wouldn’t have been enough (even had it all gone to Al Gore) to overcome absolute majorities for George W. Bush.
In states where neither Bush nor Gore had an absolute 50%+ majority, the Green/Nader vote was smaller than the winner’s margin over the loser. [For example, in Ohio, Bush’s margin was 165,000 votes while Nader’s vote was only 118,000].
The detailed proof is left as an exercise for the reader (looking at you, CG!)
Oh Snap DSD!
Now I remember how Democrats were pissed at Nader!
Sometimes the Libertarians seem to have trouble getting a majority of themselves to pick a real long-time Libertarian and instead nominate someone ambiguous like Bill Weld (former GOP Gov. of Mass.) or ex-Cong. Bill Barr (R-Ga).
But RFKj’s views are so weird and evanescent that maybe he’d fit in. On the other hand, he’d have to explain having long been an apologist for the Bolivarian régime in Venezuela, which is the diametric opposite of U.S. Libertarian values in almost every imaginable aspect.
My view on Libertarians is they sill compromise if a potential nominee was socially conservative (see Bill Barr) but are unforgiving of support for government regulation of business or advocating higher taxes om the rich.
Which is why they are basically Republicans at heart.
My favorite libertarian story was in 1980.
This was before anyone paid attention to the Koch Brothers.
David W Koch was a libertarian in those days and became the. LP candidate for VP after pledging to finance the campaign.
His money allowed the Presidential candidate,Ed Clark , to actually put on the semblance of a real campaign complete with network paid advertisements and even a 30 minute campaign broadcast.
Literally , Koch had bought himself a spot on the ticket,a true capitalist!
😁
A lost Kennedy soul….