Can Haley somehow pull a magical Republican Presidential nomination ‘rabbit out of a hat’?…..
If she can hang in and chip away with Trump while the courts and Trump himself hurt him with Republican voters…
VERY Unlikely….
But?
Politico has a piece that goes there….
Sure, at the moment, it looks like Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican nomination. But it smells a bit like 2016, when there was near unanimity in the press and the political class that he didn’t have a shot in hell against Hillary Clinton.
In an unstable, unconventional time, it’s not inconceivable to imagine a scenario in which the bottom suddenly falls out for the former president and a rival ambushes him on his way to the GOP convention in Milwaukee. Like Nikki Haley…..
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If we’ve learned anything, it’s that the laws of political gravity or axioms about elected politics don’t always apply anymore. Traditional voting habits have been thrown out the window. Polling has proved unreliable. And yet here we are, again, operating with utter certainty that the GOP primary is already cooked.
This isn’t a prediction or a guarantee that Haley will beat Trump. But if it happens, here’s how it would work.
Her uphill climb begins next Monday in the Iowa caucuses, where Haley needs a solid second- or third-place finish. In her best-case scenario, the former U.N. ambassador finishes a strong second — which sounds the death knell for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — and holds Trump to under 50 percent….
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This is where she needs to bleed Trump and show Republicans in the states to come — most notably in her home state, which votes a month later — that there is a viable alternative….
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Chris Christie’s departure from the race Wednesday was the necessary first step. With the most vocal anti-Trump Republican gone, now there is a possibility she can consolidate the vote against the frontrunner; together, their support surpassed Trump’s in the latest Granite State Poll. And two-thirds of Christie’s supporters indicated Haley is their second choice. A Haley victory in New Hampshire isn’t out of the question; the Granite State Poll shows her within 7 points of Trump….
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To go farther, Haley will need a few surprise finishes accompanied by strong performances in some traditionally blue states where beaten-down Republicans might welcome the prospect of a Haley-led ticket and the prospect of diminished down-ticket losses. She’d also probably need a big-state win in a place like California. If she were to accomplish such a feat — and continued to hold her margins over Joe Biden in head-to-head polling matchups — she could justify remaining in the race, especially with Trump’s legal troubles looming in the background.
The convention is another problem entirely, if she makes it that far. As hard as it is to envision a scenario in which she wrests the nomination from Trump, there isn’t much precedent for a nominee with four criminal indictments either. A felony conviction would breathe oxygen into the case for Haley, particularly if it led to a scenario where Haley continued to lead Biden in the polls and Trump was trailing, or where independents, women and suburbanites turned even more sharply against him.
It’s a bank shot, of course. Trump occupies the commanding heights. But there’s no shortage of recent examples where conventional political wisdom was upended or a seemingly unassailable politician’s fortunes took a dramatic turn for the worse….
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Debate story… NY Times….
The Florida governor drew a few laughs with some weather jokes, but Ms. Haley got a stronger reaction with a polished stump speech that criticized Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump, the Iowa front-runner….
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Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis clashed during their debate, trading accusations about lying and feuding over the federal gasoline tax, how to fund roads and bridges, and the nation’s involvement in the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine. Here’s what political analysts had to say about who won.
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Skipping the debate hostilities, Mr. Trump opted for a mostly friendly town hall where he teased a potential vice-presidential pick and rarely faced tough questions. Read our takeaways from the dueling events.
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The biggest shake-up to the race happened a few hours before the three leading candidates hit the stage: Chris Christie’s early departure from the race. Read about his exit — and the hot mic moment that preceded it.
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Mr. Trump is off the campaign trail and in New York for the closing arguments in the civil fraud case against him and his company by that state’s attorney general. Follow our live coverage here.
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Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas and Vivek Ramaswamy, an Ohio businessman, didn’t qualify for last night’s debate. Each candidate will hold multiple events on Thursday…..
Another Haley Could?
The Trump Doomsday Scenario
Tom Lobianco: “The Trump doomsday hypothetical works like this: Haley beats Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Iowa for second place, DeSantis drops out hoping to save face for a possible future run, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie endorses Haley ahead of the New Hampshire primary giving her a surge and she completes an upset of Trump in New Hampshire… thus making it a race.”
Said one Trump adviser: “If that were to happen, that means this whole fight for the nomination goes through South Carolina. While Donald Trump has the overwhelming majority of endorsements in that state, it doesn’t mean she can’t catch him there. Look at how much movement she has had in just 30 days in New Hampshire.”