Things ARE getting tight for House Republicans who have their OWN internal divisions added the thin majority worries…
What about members being sick or unavailable for floor votes and just being on record as ‘present’?
Even with the two new vacancies, Republicans will keep a three-vote cushion on any party-line measure. With McCarthy and Santos gone, it leaves 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, but the threshold for a majority will dip from 218 members to 217 members.
But a special election to replace Santos is set for Feb. 13 — and the race for the Long Island seat, which Santos flipped when he won in 2022, is highly competitive. Election analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated the special election as a “toss-up” immediately following the expulsion vote.
If a Democrat wins the New York special election for Santos’s seat, the House would be left with 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats and one vacancy, meaning Republicans could lose just two votes on any party-line measure.
But some other members are planning to make their exits, which further puts the majority math in flux.
In one welcome development for Republicans, Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) is resigning sometime in February to take over Shea’s Performing Arts Center. He cited his frustration with dysfunction in Congress when he announced his resignation.
Lastly, Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) is set to resign from the House before mid-March to take a job as president of Youngstown State University.
Taking those exits into account, the House GOP could still have just a slim two-vote cushion by mid-March if a Democrat wins the Santos’s seat — with 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats and three vacancies. If a Republican wins the New York election, Republicans will be able to afford to lose three votes on any party-line measure….