Ever since the NY Times/Siena poll of a couple of weeks ago the media has been herd reporting that Biden is trailing Donald Trump in the polls…
They have leaned into their narrative , which has made some Democrats frantic…
President Biden has been asking insiders …..
It seems that that when the NY Times went back this week?
They found out out something that Biden’s handlers KNOW and have as reassurance that they should NOT as excited as others in how their boss is doing….
Turns out that the NY Times people began to separate the people who voted IN 2020 vs the people who didn’t?
Separated the voters who are LIKELY to vote vs those who are just registered ?
Joe Biden IS ahead….
That number should NOT be a surprise….
In most post 2020 elections?
Democrats regularly OVER perform….
Added to this is the abortion support among voters, which leaks over strongly to Democrats….
There is one very BIG warning sight for the President….
Biden IS losing support among young and minority voters with his support for Israel….
Images of the destruction and reports of the death’s in Gaza ARE eroding support for the American President…
Biden may have the Jewish vote…
But it’s costing him in other ways…
The above and linked piece below quietly explains why Biden’s handlers do NOT seem to be worried about their man…
Non-Voters from the last election probably won’t vote again one would think….
Especially with the heavy legal baggage the ex-President IS carrying on his back….
Every report of the dire consequences the country would suffer under a another Trump admin would seem to redouble the people who voted in 2020 to come back and confirm their thumbs down against the EX-President AGAIN…..
Even though he trails among registered voters, Mr. Biden actually leads Mr. Trump in our first measure of the 2024 likely electorate, 47 percent to 45 percent.
If you’re a close reader of this newsletter, this might not come completely out of nowhere. Our polls have consistently shown Mr. Biden doing better among highly regular and engaged voters — especially those who voted in the last midterm election. In those polls, the most heavily Republican voters have been those who voted in 2020, but not 2022. It helps explain why Democrats keep doing so well in low-turnout special elections even though they struggle in polls of registered voters or adults.
But in this particular poll, the split isn’t just between midterm and non-midterm voters. It’s between people who voted in the 2020 general election and those who didn’t. Mr. Biden leads by six points among voters who participated in the 2020 election, while Mr. Trump holds an overwhelming 22-point lead among those who did not vote in 2020. In our estimation, needless to say, 2020 nonvoters are less likely to vote in 2024, and that’s why we show Mr. Biden ahead among likely voters.
It’s an intriguing pattern, but there’s good reason for caution here.
For one: Our previous polling hasn’t shown anything this extreme, including our battleground polling conducted eight weeks ago. That doesn’t mean it’s wrong, but our sample of 2020 nonvoters includes only 296 respondents — a sample that’s too small for any serious conclusions.
For another: The people who voted in 2020 reported backing Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by 10 points in the 2020 election, 51 percent to 41 percent. In reality, Mr. Biden won by 4.5 points.
Now, there’s a good reason respondents might have been less likely to report backing Mr. Trump in our poll: We concluded the substantive portion of the survey with a series of questions about Mr. Trump’s coming legal battles, including whether he committed crimes, whether he’ll be convicted, whether he should go to jail and so on. Then, at the very end of the survey, we asked them how they voted in 2020.
It’s possible these questions about Mr. Trump’s legal problems made his supporters less likely to admit supporting him in the 2020 election. Indeed, registered Republicans with a record of voting in 2020 were three times as likely as Democrats to refuse to tell us whom they supported in the last presidential election. But it’s also possible that our sample really does just contain too many Biden ’20 voters with respect to nonvoters, yielding a lopsided shift in his direction among likely voters….
Nonvoters don’t vote, after all. In all likelihood, people with a robust track record of voting will play an outsize role in the election, and at least in this poll, that’s good news for Mr. Biden…..