Donald Trump the convicted felon as President?

Huh?

Politico has the latest piece that quotes polls as pointing to American voters as possibly ELECTING a CONVICTED FELON as President of the United States…

I may be wrong….

But?

I find the idea incomprehensible …..

 

I know the polling gets things right sometimes….

But they also miss the mark other times….

On this one?

My common sense smells a wrong….

 

Mr. Trump has been charged with 91 criminal felonies….

In a month or so the US Supreme Court will rule if he has immunity in the Federal Courts from ANYTHING he did as President…..

The immunity think does NOT count for state charges of crimes and he’s up for two trials on those cases…

If Trump IS convicted anywhere he is sure to appeal those convictions so it is unlikely that he would actually be in jail for any length of time by Nov. 2024….

But?

Being a CONVICTED crook I’m going counter the polling…. Is going to be a vastly different thing to voters come Nov. 4 than a poll 10 1/2 months out from when these polls are…

 

We know that Trump has solid Republican base support….

But in another poll last we saw something….

In that poll almost half of the over 505 that said they would vote Trump?

Half of the respondents were not so sure they’d vote for him….

 

Polls ARE snap shots of a group of people at a place in time that slips away after the question’s are asked….

People should remember that….

I just do NOT think American voters would stoop so slow as to vote for a guy who tried to steal their government in brought daylight , got caught and convicted and is trying again to get his old job back ….

I hope and pray I’m Right……

For ALL our sakes…..

Last month’s New York Times/Siena College poll asked likely voters in six Biden-won swing states who said they weren’t supporting him — a collection of Trump voters and those who said they were undecided — what they would do if Trump “were convicted and sentenced to prison but were still the Republican nominee.”

Most of them would still vote for Trump, but 5 percent of the likely electorate across those swing states said they would vote for Biden under that circumstance. That’s potentially enough to tilt the race to the Democratic incumbent — but it’s not guaranteed, especially with Biden already trailing.

Most of that 5-point shift came from voters who were undecided or preferred another candidate in the initial Biden-Trump contest. The New York Times/Siena crosstabs also suggest young voters and independents who hadn’t picked Biden before were slightly more likely to say they would vote for him if Trump were convicted.

Other polls have similarly found that movement away from Trump in the event of a criminal conviction could provide a much-needed boost to Biden — but only a modest one. Half of respondents in a Vanderbilt University poll in Tennessee this month were asked to consider a straight matchup between Biden, Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; Trump led by 19 points.

But the other half were asked for whom they would vote if Trump “had been convicted of one or more felonies by a jury.” In that matchup, Trump’s lead contracted to 13 points, though most of the defections went to Kennedy and an unnamed “other” candidate.

Even polls conducted by self-interested parties show a Trump conviction having only a minor effect on the election. WPA Intelligence, the GOP polling firm working for the pro-Ron DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down, released a poll in September that found Biden ahead of Trump by 2 points on the initial ballot.

The firm has been unsparing in its portrayal of Trump as an electoral albatross on the party. But even its poll found only a small shift toward Biden, who went from ahead by 2 points to up by 6 points if Trump were convicted.

There are a few polls that suggest a Trump conviction could be more significant, but they mostly gloss over the polarization of the electorate. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll this month, 64 percent of Americans said they would at least somewhat agree with the statement that Trump “should not run for president” if he’s convicted of a crime. But saying he shouldn’t run is a far cry from saying they wouldn’t vote for him with only a limited number of choices on the ballot.

My colleagues at POLITICO Magazine commissioned their own polling with Ipsos back in August. Roughly a third of respondents, 32 percent, said a conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump — far from unanimity…..

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