It’s a year out…..
(This IS only One poll…)
Joe Biden’s Presidency IS going thru a VERY rocky period…..
Major conflicts in Europe and the Middle East…..
A lousy US Economy ….
And frail looking Joe Biden at 80…….
The above and a Donald Trump that is in the news constantly , even while facing four criminal cases, and in the middle of a BIG civil case, an is actually only three years younger than Biden , and is constantly babbling almost incoherently STILL has Trump UP over the President…
The poll is a NY Times /Siena poll and it IS a warning to Biden & Co.
A LOT of us do NOT think Donald Trump will return to the US Presidency…..
We do NOT think he will survive his criminal trials in any shape to become President again…..
I could be wrong….
But America isn’t quit ready to have a convicted felon lead a country of 330 Million Americans….
But that’s another story….
Barack Obama in his 3rd year in office around this place had a 43% approval and 48% disapproval not far from where his Vice President at the time, and now President Joe Biden is today….
Obama would go on to reverse his number’s by election day 2012 to 52% approval vs 45% disapproval….
On face value this has been going on for a while….
Joe Biden looks old…..
He walks woodenly….
He’s a terrible speaker….
He CAN still go out and ride a bike….
Donald Trump is over weight….
He slurs his words….
He rants, sometimes incoherently….
He’s speaker and a showman….
And makes himself available to the media….
The linked poll below points to loses by Biden in minority and younger support….
Those who are older and haven’t forgotten the dread they went thru for Trump’s four years will stick with Biden thru think and thin….
But Trump has a solid Republican base that shows up in the polling….
Biden’s does NOT….
The analysis of the poll points to some of Biden’s support possibly staying home…..
American elections are not by overall popular vote….
They are decided by state votes….
And THAT IS the problem for Biden….
Democratic overall Presidential vote surpasses Republican vote outright ….
But the state vote in this poll has Biden behind….
(In Other places, not so, and in most, to almost all, special elections recently, Democrats HAVE OVER performed)….
We’ll see President Biden increasing his visits to several key states howe won the last time but has fallen behind in …
We’ll see Donald Trump in court increasingly also….
A year in American politics can be a lifetime….
President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.
The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.
Across the six battlegrounds — all of which Mr. Biden carried in 2020 — the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent.
Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.
Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.
Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.
In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.
With one year to go until the election, there’s still plenty of time for the race to change. In contrast with four years ago, the poll finds a disengaged, disaffected and dissatisfied electorate, setting the stage for a potentially volatile campaign. Many voters only agonizingly support these two disliked candidates. Some will shift as the campaign gets underway. Others simply won’t vote at all.
The poll contains considerable evidence that it shouldn’t necessarily be daunting for Democrats to reassemble a coalition to defeat Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was three years ago. But even if Mr. Trump remains eminently beatable, the poll also suggests it may nonetheless be quite challenging for Mr. Biden himself.
The survey finds that Mr. Biden enters his campaign as a badly weakened candidate, one running without the strengths on personal likability, temperament and character that were essential to his narrow victories in all six of these states in 2020. Long-festering vulnerabilities on his age, economic stewardship, and appeal to young, Black and Hispanic voters have grown severe enough to imperil his re-election chances.
On question after question, the public’s view of the president has plummeted over the course of his time in office. The deterioration in Mr. Biden’s standing is broad, spanning virtually every demographic group, yet it yields an especially deep blow to his electoral support among young, Black and Hispanic voters, with Mr. Trump obtaining previously unimaginable levels of support with them….
While all of this raises the specter of catastrophe for Democrats, there is still plenty of time for the electorate’s preferences to gradually come back into alignment with the familiar demographic patterns of the last few decades. The poll suggests that it shouldn’t necessarily be difficult for Mr. Biden to reassemble his winning coalition — at least on paper. To win, he merely needs to reinvigorate voters from traditional Democratic constituencies, groups that the poll finds remain quite open to Democrats in a matchup against Mr. Trump.
In a hypothetical race without Mr. Biden, an unnamed generic Democrat leads Mr. Trump by eight points, 48 to 40 — a wider lead than the three-point edge held by an unnamed Democrat at this time in 2019….
Even Kamala Harris — no political juggernaut so far — fares a bit better than Mr. Biden, trailing Mr. Trump by three points in a hypothetical matchup, compared with Mr. Biden’s five- point deficit (Mr. Trump appears to lead by four points in the top-line 48-44 result because of rounding).
While Mr. Biden doesn’t fare all that much worse than his running mate, the top-line similarity obscures major differences in their support: A full 11 percent of Ms. Harris’s would-be supporters do not back Mr. Biden, and two-thirds of them are either nonwhite or younger than 30.
As a result, Mr. Biden would lead by three points among registered voters and two points among likely voters across the battlegrounds, including leads in five of the six states, if he could regain the nonwhite and young voters who would be willing to vote for his own not-especially-popular vice president. His lead among Black, Hispanic and young voters would return to 2020 levels as well, at least among likely voters….
Instead, Mr. Biden’s problems, as seen by voters, are mostly about his handling of the presidency, whether because of the economy, the state of the nation, or deep reservations about his ability to carry out his duties. It is hard to tell which of these problems most explains his weakness. After all, the preponderance of the voters share all these concerns. Regardless of which matters most, each one fuels a belief that Mr. Biden is incapable of handling the challenges facing the nation, let alone improving their lives…
Historically, incumbent presidents have found themselves in a similar position at the start of the race, only to rally their base with the help of a growing economy and a polarizing campaign. It is hard to predict whether views of the economy will improve, but the Biden campaign will undoubtedly try to refocus voters on issues like preserving democracy and abortion rights, just as the Democrats did in the midterms….