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Joe Biden’s Age and The US Economy put him behind Trump a year out ….Open Thread 11/5/2023

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It’s a year out…..

(This IS only One poll…)

Joe Biden’s Presidency IS going thru a VERY rocky period…..

Major conflicts in Europe and the Middle East…..

A lousy US Economy ….

And frail looking Joe Biden at 80…….

The above and a Donald Trump that is in the news constantly , even while facing four criminal cases, and in the middle of  a BIG civil case,  an is actually  only three years younger than Biden , and is constantly  babbling almost incoherently STILL has Trump UP over the President…

 

The poll is a NY Times /Siena poll and it IS a warning to Biden & Co.

A LOT of us do NOT think Donald Trump will return to the US Presidency…..

We do NOT think he will survive his criminal trials in any shape to become President again…..

I could be wrong….

But America isn’t quit ready to have a convicted felon lead a country of 330 Million Americans….

 

But that’s another story….

Barack Obama in his 3rd year in office around this place had a 43% approval and 48% disapproval not far from where his  Vice President at the time, and now President Joe Biden is today….

Obama would go on to reverse his number’s by election day 2012 to 52% approval vs 45% disapproval….

 

On face value this has been going on for a while….

Joe Biden looks old…..

He walks woodenly….

He’s a terrible speaker….

But?

He CAN still go out and ride a bike….

 

Donald Trump is over weight….

He slurs his words….

He rants, sometimes incoherently….

But?

He’s speaker and a showman….

And makes himself available to the media….

 

The linked poll below points to loses by Biden in minority and younger support….

Those who are older and haven’t forgotten the dread they went thru for Trump’s four years will stick with Biden thru think and thin….

But Trump has a solid Republican base that shows up in the polling….

Biden’s does NOT….

The analysis of the poll points to some of Biden’s support possibly staying home…..

 

American elections are not by overall popular vote….

They are decided by state votes….

And THAT IS the problem for Biden….

Democratic overall Presidential vote surpasses Republican vote outright ….

But the state vote in this poll has Biden behind….

(In Other places,  not so,  and in most,  to almost all,  special elections recently,  Democrats HAVE OVER performed)….

 

We’ll see President Biden increasing his visits to several key states howe won the last time but has fallen behind in …

And?

We’ll see Donald Trump in court increasingly also….

A year in American politics can be a lifetime….

President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.

The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.

Across the six battlegrounds — all of which Mr. Biden carried in 2020 — the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent.

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.

A look deeper into the poll findings ….

With one year to go until the election, there’s still plenty of time for the race to change. In contrast with four years ago, the poll finds a disengaged, disaffected and dissatisfied electorate, setting the stage for a potentially volatile campaign. Many voters only agonizingly support these two disliked candidates. Some will shift as the campaign gets underway. Others simply won’t vote at all.

The poll contains considerable evidence that it shouldn’t necessarily be daunting for Democrats to reassemble a coalition to defeat Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was three years ago. But even if Mr. Trump remains eminently beatable, the poll also suggests it may nonetheless be quite challenging for Mr. Biden himself.

The survey finds that Mr. Biden enters his campaign as a badly weakened candidate, one running without the strengths on personal likability, temperament and character that were essential to his narrow victories in all six of these states in 2020. Long-festering vulnerabilities on his age, economic stewardship, and appeal to young, Black and Hispanic voters have grown severe enough to imperil his re-election chances.

On question after question, the public’s view of the president has plummeted over the course of his time in office. The deterioration in Mr. Biden’s standing is broad, spanning virtually every demographic group, yet it yields an especially deep blow to his electoral support among young, Black and Hispanic voters, with Mr. Trump obtaining previously unimaginable levels of support with them….

…

While all of this raises the specter of catastrophe for Democrats, there is still plenty of time for the electorate’s preferences to gradually come back into alignment with the familiar demographic patterns of the last few decades. The poll suggests that it shouldn’t necessarily be difficult for Mr. Biden to reassemble his winning coalition — at least on paper. To win, he merely needs to reinvigorate voters from traditional Democratic constituencies, groups that the poll finds remain quite open to Democrats in a matchup against Mr. Trump.

In a hypothetical race without Mr. Biden, an unnamed generic Democrat leads Mr. Trump by eight points, 48 to 40 — a wider lead than the three-point edge held by an unnamed Democrat at this time in 2019….

…

Even Kamala Harris — no political juggernaut so far — fares a bit better than Mr. Biden, trailing Mr. Trump by three points in a hypothetical matchup, compared with Mr. Biden’s five- point deficit (Mr. Trump appears to lead by four points in the top-line 48-44 result because of rounding).

While Mr. Biden doesn’t fare all that much worse than his running mate, the top-line similarity obscures major differences in their support: A full 11 percent of Ms. Harris’s would-be supporters do not back Mr. Biden, and two-thirds of them are either nonwhite or younger than 30.

As a result, Mr. Biden would lead by three points among registered voters and two points among likely voters across the battlegrounds, including leads in five of the six states, if he could regain the nonwhite and young voters who would be willing to vote for his own not-especially-popular vice president. His lead among Black, Hispanic and young voters would return to 2020 levels as well, at least among likely voters….

…

Instead, Mr. Biden’s problems, as seen by voters, are mostly about his handling of the presidency, whether because of the economy, the state of the nation, or deep reservations about his ability to carry out his duties. It is hard to tell which of these problems most explains his weakness. After all, the preponderance of the voters share all these concerns. Regardless of which matters most, each one fuels a belief that Mr. Biden is incapable of handling the challenges facing the nation, let alone improving their lives…

…

Historically, incumbent presidents have found themselves in a similar position at the start of the race, only to rally their base with the help of a growing economy and a polarizing campaign. It is hard to predict whether views of the economy will improve, but the Biden campaign will undoubtedly try to refocus voters on issues like preserving democracy and abortion rights, just as the Democrats did in the midterms….

More….

image…PBS

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    • For this instant in time, “most people” includes most people including, for the moment, me.

      It’s not just the “headline” national numbers, the NYT/Siena poll finds Trump leading in most of the battleground states (in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt) that Trump won from Hillary Clinton in 2016, only to lose them to Joe Biden in 2020.

      In both elections, although the national percentages were relatively close, the Electoral College split decisively 306 to 232 (not counting “faithless” electors).

      Trump Is Ahead in Five of Six Swing States
      Margins are calculated using unrounded figures.

      NEVADA +10 REP
      Biden 41%
      Trump 52

      GEORGIA +6 REP
      Biden 43%
      Trump 49

      ARIZONA +5 REP
      Biden 44%
      Trump 49

      MICHIGAN +5 REP
      Biden 43%
      Trump 48

      PENNSYLVANIA +4 REP
      Biden 44%
      Trump 48

      WISCONSIN +2 DEM
      Biden 47%
      Trump 45

      Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 By Ashley Wu and Molly Cook Escobar
      https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html

      It’s silly to declare a winner 52 weeks before the election, but it’s easy to see that Trump still has a good chance to return and bring back authoritarianism and mismanagement to the U.S. and the rest of the world.

      • I put your comment in the post for the poll DSD…..

        It’ll get more exposure ref: the poll/post….

      • Yes Indeed DSD….

        One should NOT forget Hillary Clinton letting Trump surprisingly in the White House

        • Trump’s pollstress, Kellyanne Conway, may have spouted nonsense about many things, but she was right on the money in 2016.

          I was perplexed why Donald Trump seemed to be wasting his time roaming the Rust Belt, but then we found out why.

            • Hillary was too busy doing a round of small fund-raisers among rich people — since she, as usual, had overspent her budget too rapidly) to go out and campaign among real voters in what turned out to be pivotal states (she didn’t know because she’d stopped taking real polls a couple of weeks before Election Day).

            • She was also trying to put Arizona, Georgia, and Texas on the map. An early indicator of where 2 out of 3 later went, but maybe not the best course in ’16.

  4. Miscellaneous Republican Garbage

    In Alabama Republican authoritarians want to prosecute people or groups that help women leave the state to get an abortion under some conspiracy statute.The Justice Department has filed a statement supporting a lawsuit against radical extremist AG Steve Marshall who is spearheading the effort.

    In Ohio where voters adopted a constitutional amendment establishing a right to abortion ,four extremist Republican legislators showing their hatred of democracy in action,by threatening to strip state courts of the ability to enforce the right.

    As the nation heads toward another government shutdown ,House members wasted an entire week essentially doing nothing .Under the” leadership “ of Right wing extremist Mike Johnson , the boys and girls went home for the weekend.

    While Republican Party Leader Donald Trump plans an extreme crackdown on immigration ,if returned to the presidency ,polls show that a significant minority of Hispanic voters support him.

    Republican state rep.Michelle Salzman is taking heat for appearing to call for genocide for all Palestinians.What happened to the Republican cry ( fake though it is) to “ protect” innocent human life?

    And finally while Republicans cant get their act together over the looming government shutdown, House Speaker Mike Johnson is in Paris to blather to a group of fellow Right Wing extremists.What? Him worry?

  6. Breaking…

    Secret Service agents assigned to President Joe Biden’s granddaughter, Naomi, opened fire on three individuals seeking to break into their unmarked and unoccupied SUV in the Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, D.C., on Sunday night.

    The agents witnessed three individuals breaking the window of the SUV before opening fire. No one was struck by the gunfire and the suspects were seen fleeing in a red car, the Secret Service said in a statement released Monday morning. A regional bulletin was issued to find the culprits….

    More…

  7. House blocks Marjorie Taylor Greene’s push to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
    Ken Tran, USA TODAY

    Updated Tue, November 14, 2023 at 1:06 PM EST

    WASHINGTON – The House voted Monday evening to set aside a long-shot bid from conservative firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

    Lawmakers effectively dismissed the resolution by a bipartisan vote of 209-201 by referring it to the House Homeland Security Committee. That blocked the push from Greene, who introduced the resolution as “privileged,” which forced the lower chamber to consider it on the floor within two legislative days.

    Eight Republicans joined all Democrats to defeat the measure: Cliff Bentz of Oregon, Ken Buck of Colorado, Darrell Issa of California, Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, Tom McClintock of California, Virginia Foxx of North Carolina, John Duarte of California and Mike Turner of Ohio.

    “I’m outraged,” a frustrated Greene said leaving the Capitol building after the House turned down her resolution. “I can assure you that Republican voters will be extremely angry that they’ve done this.”

    Greene said she is considering introducing the resolution again at some point in the future and added she could put it on the floor as privileged again to force the House to take up another vote….

    https://news.yahoo.com/house-blocks-marjorie-taylor-greenes-004640974.html

    This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s push to impeach Alejandro Mayorkas fails

    • Not all of the 8 Republicans who voted against impeaching Sec. Mayorkas, e.g. Ken Buck of Colorado and Patrick McHenry of N. Carolina, would be what I consider to be from the moderate, establishmentarian or liberal wing of the House GOP Conference.

      • The “liberal”wing of the House GOP conference?

        You’re joking right?

        Maybe you’ve been reading too many of James’s posts!

    • MJG has lost her best benefactor…….

      Kevin McCarthy is no longer the Speaker and her antics are no longer tolerated by GOPer’s….

      The House has more important things to deal with

  8. Joe Manchin says he would “absolutely” run for President if there is an appetite for his candidacy.

    Other than maybe CG who is pining for another white guy born in the 1940s to enter this race?

  9. Interesting Quinnipiac poll…

    Independents by 72%-20% and Democrats by 58%-39% say they would like to see other candidates enter the presidential race ,while Republicans by 67%-29% say they are satisfied with the current field.

    • Yup!

      But the same respondents chose Biden OVER Trump and others…..

      Biden’s politics is knocked but they are seen as better than the GOPer’s..,,

      Democratic voters have and Will come home to Biden next November
      This IS in the polls numbers…..

      But Biden IS gonna come back to Domestic politics …..

      As was pointed out?

      Bush II Bush I handled foreign affairs
      It cost him second term

      ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL

      • James, you’re confusing your Bushes, and thus your assessment is nearly totally wrong.
        GHW Bush won election in 1988 (after 2 terms as Reagan’s VP), and enjoyed huge popularity in 1991 after liberating Kuwait in Desert Shield/Storm, only to see it plummet within a year because of the economy and cause him to lose a second term to Bill Clinton in 1992.
        His son, George W. Bush, fared better because (sadly) of 9/11/2001 and Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan (mother of the AUMF).
        The Republicans shamelessly exploited 9/11, increasing their House majority and retaking a Senate majority in 2002. While Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 proved disastrous in the long term, its apparent immediate success (“Mission Accomplished”) temporarily helped GW Bush win the only Republican presidential popular majority in the 35 years since his father’s election in 1988. However the shine began to tarnish with the mishandling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the quagmire in Iraq (which only helped Iran) and the junk-bond/foreclosure crisis of 2008-9.
        George H. W. Bush handled foreign affairs with reasonable success (the fall of Communism, détente with the new Russia, and the liberation of Kuwait, but lost re-election in 1992.
        George W. Bush laid the foundations of overseas disaster (weakening rather than strengthening America’s dominance in the world), but still won re-election in 2004.
        If anything, this history shows that Americans tend to feel and vote their pocketbook first.

      • The New York Times says that Kamala Harris ran slightly better than Biden against Trump in their recent poll.

        Surprising in that Harris is generally considered the weak part of the ticket.

        • Screw all the trash talk about her. If Biden has to be replaced(and it’s certainly looking that way), she is the only one who can step up and win.

          • SE?

            IF Joe Biden throws in the towel (Very unlikely!)
            G
            There would be a free for all with Newsom, Whitmer and who knows else……Phillps and the other woman running would still be way behind

  10. New poll out of New Hampshire shows Trump with 42% and Nikki Haley at 20%.

    Haley is still the decided underdog but if her trajectory continues in the Granite State she could .make it a competitive race there. If she wins or comes close in NH–still a big if– she’d have to follow it up with a win in her home state of South Carolina. Trump won borg NH and SC I’m 2016 so losing either of them would likely set him off bigly.

  11. New Hampshire poll of Drmicratic primary voters
    Biden–Write In–65%
    Phillips–10%
    Williamson–9%

  13. Happy Birthday Mr. President!

    Biden Celebrates His Birthday Privately

    “For many of a certain age, there comes a point when marking yet another birthday, taking note of yet another passage of the calendar, is not greeted with the same enthusiasm it once was. And that’s for people who are not even running for president,” the New York Times reports.

    “For President Biden, who turns 81 on Monday, another birthday may bring more liability than revelry, offering one more reminder of his age to an already skeptical electorate. Unlike other presidents who have celebrated birthdays with lavish political events, Mr. Biden plans to observe his milestone privately with family in Nantucket later this week.”

    “The best birthday gift the oldest president in American history could hope for would be a strategy for assuaging voters’ concerns, but that has been hard to come by. Mr. Biden and his team have taken the approach that his record of domestic legislation and international leadership should belie any worries about his capacity, even though polls have shown consistently that that line of argument has not been persuasive, at least not yet.”

  14. Snagged from the Daily Kos comments section…

    I’d rather have 81 birthdays than 91 indictments. Especially since the guy with 91 indictments (and counting) will have had 78 birthdays by election time.

    • He, he, he

      No Shit!

      Democrats gonna stick with Biden

      Polls have the others behind worse than Trump’s opponents

        • In South Carolina’s largest city, ex-state Rep. William S. Cogswell, Jr. (R) beat out incumbent Mayor John Tecklenburg (D) 51%-49%. Cogswell will be the first GOP mayor of Charleston since 1877….
          RRH….

        • A Good Morning to Everyone and a Happy Thanksgiving!

          Enjoy…….

          Blessings to All……

          Hope for others not so fortunate

            • Kyle Griffin
              @kylegriffin1
              The Georgia Supreme Court has refused to approve rules for a new commission to discipline and remove state prosecutors — meaning the commission can’t operate.

              Republicans wanted the commission to baselessly discipline or remove Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.

              • 34 people arrested in Dublin as riots erupt over stabbing attack

                Irish police arrested 34 people Thursday night in Dublin after rioters stormed across the capital city, torching cars and clashing with police in response to a stabbing attack near a school.

                Ireland’s national police service, An Garda Síochána, said 32 of the people who were arrested were charged for participating in rioting and destruction across the city…..

                More…

    • 60 years after JFK assassination: Remembering president’s visit to Houston 24 hours before his death

      President John F. Kennedy was assassinated 60 years ago.

      But did you know the president spent his last evening in downtown Houston?….

      The president and first lady were on a tour of Texas.

      At the same time, LULAC, the biggest Latino civil rights organization in the country at the time, was holding its annual statewide gala at the Rice Hotel.

      The plan was for the couple just to stop by and wave….

      ….

      “It’s estimated somewhere between 75% to 80% of all Hispanics voted for Kennedy, so it was a very large voting bloc at the time, and having him come and talk to this group just solidified that effort,” explained Minnette Boesel, the president of the Heritage Society at Sam Houston Park. “There were numerous Viva Kennedy campaigns around the state.”

      After the speeches at the Rice Hotel, Sharkey got a handshake from the president.

      “The next morning, I went to school, and I just felt like I was walking on clouds,” she remembered. “In fact, I went to school and said I didn’t wash my hand because I shook the president’s hand.

      More…

        • I didn’t come along until 8 years after JFK’s death. My mom remembered it very clearly and still talked about it from time to time prior to her death earlier this year.

          She was about the same age on Nov. 22 1963 as I was on Sep 11 2001 and I get it. I can imagine telling the story of what I was doing that day the rest of my life.

          If anyone is into podcasts Rob Reiner has a good 3 part one about the JFK assassination that dropped this month.
          He was in high school at the time. By the time I was born he was known as “Meathead” on one of the best sitcoms of all times.

    • “Happy Thanksgiving to ALL, including the Racist & Incompetent Attorney General of New York State, Letitia ‘Peekaboo’ James, who has let Murder & Violent Crime FLOURISH, & Businesses FLEE; the Radical Left Trump Hating Judge, a ‘Psycho,’ Arthur Engoron, who Criminally Defrauded the State of New York, & ME, by purposely Valuing my Assets at a ‘tiny’ Fraction of what they are really worth in order to convict me of Fraud before even a Trial, or seeing any PROOF, & used his Politically Biased & Corrupt Campaign Finance Violator, Chief Clerk Alison Greenfield, to sit by his side on the ‘Bench’ & tell him what to do; & Crooked Joe Biden, who has WEAPONIZED his Department of Injustice against his Political Opponent, & allowed our Country to go to HELL; & all of the other Radical Left Lunatics, Communists, Fascists, Marxists, Democrats, & RINOS, who are seriously looking to DESTROY OUR COUNTRY,” the former president posted.

  18. “Have no fear, however, we will WIN the Presidential Election of 2024, & MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!” Trump added.

  19. A Proclamation on Thanksgiving Day, 2023

    As families, loved ones, and friends across the country come together to celebrate Thanksgiving, let us be grateful for all the blessings of this Nation and its limitless possibilities.

    Throughout our country’s history, this season of reflection and giving thanks comes in good times and tough ones. Before there was a United States of America, the Pilgrims celebrated Thanksgiving in honor of their first successful harvest and the support and generosity of the Wampanoag people who made it possible. Amid the fierce battle for our Nation’s independence, General George Washington and his troops celebrated Thanksgiving on the way to Valley Forge. During the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed Thanksgiving a national holiday to honor the blessings of our country, even as he fought to preserve our Union.

    This week, Americans will gather with their loved ones and families, celebrating the love they share and the traditions they built together. To those who are also enduring hard times or grieving the loss of a loved one, know that we are thinking of you.

    We are truly a good Nation because we are a good people — the First Lady and I see it every time we travel the country because we meet so many incredible people doing the most extraordinary things. We have met with service members, veterans, and their families, who have selflessly served and sacrificed for our country. We have witnessed the resolve of firefighters, police officers, and first responders, who risk their lives every day to protect us. We have seen the best of our character in the doctors, nurses, scientists, public servants, union workers, and teachers, who ensure everyone is taken care of and no one is left behind. We have seen all the possibilities this Nation holds in the mothers, fathers, and caregivers, who work hard to build a future worthy of their children’s greatest dreams, and in young people across the country, who are the most talented, engaged, and educated generation in history.

    This Thanksgiving we are grateful for our Nation and the incredible soul of America. May we all remember that we are the United States of America — there is nothing beyond our capacity if we do it together.

    NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim Thursday, November 23, 2023, as a National Day of Thanksgiving. I encourage the people of the United States of America to join together and give thanks for the friends, neighbors, family members, and strangers who have supported each other over the past year in a reflection of goodwill and unity.

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