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| Much of the 2024 presidential campaign will revolve around the economy’s short-term performance, and both Biden and his Republican critics will be able to cite evidence to make their case. Republicans will note that inflation remains uncomfortably high and that Biden’s pandemic relief spending played a role (albeit a secondary one, as my colleague German Lopez has explained). Biden’s campaign will counter that job growth is solid, and wages have risen across the income spectrum. His investments, in semiconductors and more, seem to be playing a role. |
| But I would encourage you not to lose sight of the bigger picture during the back and forth of the campaign. The biggest picture is that the post-1980 economy failed to deliver the broad-based benefits that Reagan and his allies promised. So did several economic policies, like expanded global trade, that many Democrats favored. |
Biden represents a response to these unfulfilled promises, as do the small but growing number of Republicans pushing their party to change. Whatever happens with the economy over the next year or with Biden’s presidency, the policy debate has shifted.
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