On several levels things COULD be VERY good for Democrats in the voting result’s from the 2024 General Election….
The Republicans only have a 4 or 5 seat majority right now….
The House Republican RightWingNuts are doing their best to add to any advantage Democrats might gain form Abortion pushback, Trump, Redistricting ands Other things…..
Here’s Rol Call’s view of things right now in the US House races ….
From navigating a potential government shutdown to beginning an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, the House of Representatives will have some time in the spotlight over the next few weeks. The stakes are high, considering the House majority is in play next year.
Democrats need a net gain of five seats to regain the majority they lost in 2022. That means even a minor shift in voter sentiment or movement at the top of the ballot in the presidential race will have an effect on House races.
With a little more than 13 months before Election Day, the battleground map currently encompasses 68 competitive House races. That includes all races rated by Inside Elections as Toss-up, Tilt, Lean or Likely Republican and Tilt, Lean, or Likely Democratic. There are 182 races rated as Solid Republican and 171 races rated as Solid Democratic, which means the party that does not hold the seat has a very small chance of winning it next November and is not focused on winning the seat when trying to obtain or retain the majority.
Right now, both parties need to win at least some of the 11 Toss-up races to get over the majority threshold. Republicans would have 208 seats if they win all the districts where they have a rating advantage, while Democrats would have 202 if they did the same.
Republicans could come close to 218, and thus a majority, without Toss-up races if they get what they want in North Carolina redistricting. The 14 races in the Tar Heel State don’t have a rating yet, pending a new, Republican-drawn map that’s likely to come this fall. But the GOP is counting on a three-seat gain under new lines, which would likely jeopardize Democratic Reps. Jeff Jackson, Wiley Nickel and Kathy Manning. That would give Republicans an advantage of 10 seats to the Democrats’ four in the North Carolina delegation.
But Democrats are likely to gain a seat in Alabama after the Supreme Court told the state to draw another district where Black voters are in the majority or close to it. That would take a Solid Republican seat and turn it into a Solid Democratic seat. Redistricting developments in New York could also boost Democratic prospects….
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Inside Elections moved seven races toward Democrats….