Ukraine Update…440 days into the Russian move on Ukraine….Russian Ukraine War effort is Faltering….

Prigozhin said his forces had no choice but to withdraw to rear bases to “lick the wounds.” It remains to be seen whether he does withdraw — a move that would be catastrophic for Russia’s long campaign to take Bakhmut, and which would probably carry political consequences.

Here’s the latest on the war and its ripple effects across the globe.

• The Wagner chief’s letter followed a graphic late-night video posted on Telegram, in which he appeared to display dozens of corpses of Wagner fighters killed in Bakhmut on Thursday.
• In the video, Prigozhin launches into a furious, obscenity-laden tirade, accusing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, of supplying Wagner with 70 percent less ammunition than needed. Prigozhin’s struggle with the Russia’s military leaders has continued for months, as Wagner has taken huge losses trying to drive Ukrainian forces out of Bakhmut. Ukrainian military spokesman Serhii Cherevatyi told CNN that a Wagner withdrawal could be a “turning point” in the battle.
• Prigozhin also says in the video message that a top Russian defense official who was removed from his post had joined the Wagner Group as deputy commander. Russia’s defense ministry announced on Telegram Sunday that it had replaced Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, who was in charge of logistics for the military. Prigozhin called Mizintsev a “simple man without any super demands.”
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a Putin ally, defended Prigozhin in comments on Telegram Friday, chastising Russia’s defense leadership for its silence, andsaying Prigozhin “deserves respect for the invaluable contribution” of Wagner fighters in eastern Ukraine. He called on Moscow to explain if there is a shortage of ammunition for Wagner troops. Kadyrov also said his forces were “ready to move in and take the city” if Wagner pulls out of Bakhmut.

• A bipartisan delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine to discuss the war effort and U.S. assistance. The meeting included Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), as well as Michael Carpenter, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The visit was “a powerful signal of support,” read a statement on the website for the office of the president of Ukraine.
• Ukraine and Russia did not reach an arrangement Friday to authorize new ships to export Ukrainian grain on the Black Sea, according to a U.N. spokesperson. “The Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) has not reached agreement to authorize new vessels to participate in the Black Sea Initiative,” said Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for the U.N. Secretary-General, in a statement. “We urge all parties to continue their discussions, overcome operational challenges and work towards the full implementation and continuation of the Initiative.”
• Moscow has continued to vow retaliation for what it alleges was a drone attack on the Kremlin this weektargeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence.Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in India that his country would respond with “concrete actions” to what he described as “a hostile act.” Russia accused Ukraine and the United States of involvement, something both countries have strongly denied. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin will chair a security council meeting Friday that may discuss the incident.
• Lavrov echoed statements by another Russian official alleging foreign involvement in the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin. “It is absolutely clear that Kyiv terrorists could not have carried it out without the knowledge of their ‘masters,’” he said Friday, a day after the Russian ambassador to the United States accused Washington of being behind the attack. The aggressive statements have heightened worries in Kyiv that Moscow could further escalate its war.
• The European Council approved $1.1 billion to finance the provision of artillery rounds and possibly missiles to Ukraine. The measure supports the joint procurement by E.U. countries of ammunition and missiles from operators based in the E.U. or Norway to ship to Ukraine, the council said in a news release Friday. It brings the total amount of E.U. military support to Ukraine to nearly $6.2 billion. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces need substantial amounts of ammunition to defend the Ukrainian people and territory. They need it fast,” E.U. foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said in a statement.
• Zelensky called for a special tribunal to prosecute Putin for war crimes. Speaking in The Hague, which houses the International Criminal Court, he said the Russian president “deserves to be sentenced for his criminal actions right here, in the capital of international law.” But Putin is unlikely ever to appear before the ICC, because Russia does not accept its jurisdiction and the court does not try anyone in absentia.

• The head of the Russian occupation administration in the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia ordered the relocation of civilians — some 70,000 people — away from front-line villages. In a Telegram post Friday, Yevgeny Balitsky said he made the decision to “temporarily” move families and other vulnerable civilians deeper into the occupied territory amid an increase in Ukrainian shelling in the area. He called it a measure “to ensure the safety of the residents of the front-line territories.” Analysts widely expect that a much-anticipated spring offensive by Ukraine to recapture more territory would focus on the south.
• Russia launched more than two dozen airstrikes on Ukraine Friday, injuring civilians and damaging residential buildings, Ukraine’s armed forces said in an update on Facebook. The post also accused Russia of continuing to force Ukrainians living in occupied Kherson to accept Russian passports.
• A drone attack targeted an oil refinery in southern Russia for the second time in two days, Russia’s state-run Tass news agency reported Friday. A source in the emergency services told Tass that a fire at the Ilskiy oil refinery in the Krasnodar Krai region was quickly extinguished, but the news agency said government officials have not yet officially confirmed the cause of the blaze. On Thursday, drones hit both the Ilskiy refinery and the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov, the respective regional governors said, as part of what the British Defense Ministry described as a pattern of attacks on Russian fuel storage sites since the start of the year.
• U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said Russia is unlikely to conduct a “significant offensive” in 2023 because of munitions and personnel shortages. Sustaining “even modest offensive operations” will prove increasingly challenging for Russia, she testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.

• Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that achieving a sustainable peace would be “impossible without transformation in Russia.” Speaking by video call to an Atlantic Council event ahead of a NATO summit in July, he said Ukraine was “completing the mission and putting an end to the Soviet empire,” but he warned of a “rapid rapprochement of the regimes that favor the world order based on the rule of force, instead of the rule of law.” He said Ukraine must be allowed to join NATO. “We need to act, with NATO role as a foundation for collective defense,” he said.
• Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations will discuss the extension of a deal that allows Ukrainian grain to be exported via the Black Sea, according toTurkey’s Defense Ministry. Technical personnel met Friday ahead of a deputy ministers’ meeting next week.
• A Ukrainian delegate scuffled with a Russian delegate as tensions soar ahead of the negotiations. The two men were at an event for the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation in Ankara, when the Ukrainian unfurled his country’s flag behind another Russian delegate who was in the middle of a video interview, according to Reuters. Footage from the news agency and social media showed the Ukrainian chase after a second Russian who snatched away the flag — and hitting the man to retrieve it….

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