Few politicans that switch parties WHILE IN office survive….
If the polls are right?
Sen. Sinema is gonna join that list…..
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) stands to lose re-election badly in virtually any potential matchup this November and is deeply unpopular among voters.
The survey results show that just 27% of voters in the state view Sinema favorably and want her to run again, compared to 50% of Arizonans who view her unfavorably and 54% who say she shouldn’t run again.
In any likely three-way matchup among Sinema, Ruben Gallego (D) and whatever Republican candidate wins their primary, Sinema appears to have virtually no chance of winning.
There are a lot of things that could happen in this race over the course of a year and a half plus.
It seems doubtful though that Gallego could win statewide in a traditional race. He probably has a ceiling of about 45 percent. In theory, if the Republican vote is split due to another bad nominee such as Lake, and much of that vote goes to Sinema. he could win.
However, I think national Democrats will be worried that such a Republican would win a three way vote due to Democrats being split and the party will effectively support Sinema as an Independent, just like they do with Angus King in Maine and put pressure on Gallego to step aside. That seems to be her calculation in going Independent.
Traditionally, Senators who have switched parties or gone Independent have been reelected. The last one to have done a flat-out party switch was Arlen Specter who lost a primary. Sinema has not switched to the Republicans. It is far too early to count her out.