I said in my post on the 2024 Democratic Primary that the party’s chances of winning the White House would not be impacted. Whether it’s Biden or on the off chance it’s Marianne Williamson, D’s have an 85% chance of victory, and that is merely against a non-Trump/DeSantis candidate. Against either of those two, the D’s odds only go up from there.
You cannot overstate how compromised the Banana Republicans have become, bowing themselves to Seditionists, Putin fanboys, and anti-vaccine/anti-gay/anti-trans bigots(to the extent that they weren’t already such over the previous century before Trump rode down the escalator). In 2022, a year they should have had in the bag, they over-played their hand on culture war BS and nearly lost their shot at the US House, to say nothing of the Senate.
Among people who dislike both Trump and Biden, Biden is winning those voters by almost double digit margins. And DeSantis is fast becoming a toxic figure himself in his tripling down on the GOP’s failed ’22 strategy. And Biden’s only real scandal is inflation, which is more a sputtering of the economy post-Covid issue than anything else. His signing of the landmark Infrastructure act can be touted as a boon to under-served communities across the South and Midwest. Coupled with his onshoring of American jobs, and he has all in all a decent record to run on while hammering his toxic opponents in a General Election.
Biden will lose no states he won in 2020, though Nevada and New Hampshire will be a bit close for comfort. And Democrats have excellent offensive opportunities in Alaska, the Electoral Vote in Maine, another Electoral Vote out of Nebraska(encompassing Lincoln, the state Capital), North Carolina, and Texas. Sadly, even running against compromised candidates, there is no point in trying to win in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. So the D’s ceiling stands at around 364 Electoral Votes and around the 53% of the Popular Vote Barack Obama received in 2008….
Ghost of SE @ Politicaldog101…..
image….President Joe Biden greets people after speaking about his economic agenda at International Union of Operating Engineers Local 77’s training facility in Accokeek, Md., Wednesday, April 19, 2023. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Ur up SE….
“ off chance?”
What’s your fascination with this kook Williamson?
She isn’t going to be the Democratic nominee.
Even mentioning her is farcical.
Given that polls have most people, even a majority of Democrats, not excited about the prospect of Biden running for a second term, I feel it important to mention his most serious opposition. She passes that test more than RFK Jr.
Even “off chance” probably over sells it, though. Beating an incumbent President in a Primary is the tallest mountain to climb. And once Biden markets his achievements and second term goals, out flanking him on the left in a way palatable to a General Election audience becomes a fool’s errand.
2024 Republican Primary thoughts
Trump is the dominant force, and has a near 100% shot at the nomination. But the Primary battle is already giving off shades of the 2012 contest, where it came down to the last three flavors of the month and Mitt Romney. Granted, unlike Romney, Trump isn’t losing any contests(where there are any even held). But this could be a bitter, toxic fight with candidates like Vivek Ramaswami out-flanking him on the right and guys like Chris Sununu and Asa the Hutch battling up the middle. DeSantis is on the fade, but guys like Tim Scott and Kristi Noem could battle for DeSantis’ base of support.
All in all, Trump is a lock, but this fight will leave him beaten and bloodied in ways that make 2016 look like a love-in by comparison. Another reason to think ’24 will be a Democratic landslide.
Ur daily post coming in awhile SE…..
Thanks
I’m happy you think my posts are worthwhile.
I’m happy to do so those who keep this place going and care about their politics and buddies …..