This Politico piece is contrasting with Real Clear Politics….
You should be aware that RCP IS a LEAN Right outfit that does exclude some lean Left polls…..
It wouldn’t be election eve if pollsters weren’t nervous.
At a base level, the final surveys in the states that will determine which party controls the Senate next year fall into two camps. Polls from Republican-affiliated firms point to a GOP victory — and perhaps even a romp through some blue-tinted states.
But independent polls — many of which underestimated then-President Donald Trump in 2020 — suggest Democrats still have a shot to hold off the GOP in the most competitive races on the map.
“I’m cautiously optimistic,” Charles Franklin, who runs Marquette Law School’s polling in Wisconsin, said Monday, days after his final poll pegged both the state’s marquee Senate and governor’s races as toss-ups. “But having been burned in ’16 and ’20, I’m not overconfident.”
Another academic pollster, Lee Miringoff of Marist College in New York, said the polls his institution produced — which showed Democrats narrowly ahead in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and tied in Georgia — “looked reasonable.”
“But, then again, compared to what?” he asked rhetorically. “It’s fair to say there’s a higher uncertainty this time around.
So what will it mean if Tuesday is a GOP rout that nets the party dozens of House seats and easily delivers the Senate majority?
“At the simplest level, it means nothing we’ve done since 2016 has fixed the problem” of inaccurate public polling, said Marquette’s Franklin, asked to answer the hypothetical.
Here is the final edition of our Senate polling roundup. It reflects the polling averages at RealClearPolitics as of 8 p.m. Eastern Monday night. The 10 races listed below are the ones rated “Lean Democratic,” “Toss Up” or “Lean Republican in POLITICO’s Election Forecast….
Van Jones
@VanJones68
A lot of people were underestimating Democrats. Something happened as we got closer to Election Day where the polls were telling us one thing — but the PEOPLE were feeling something different. #ElectionDay #Election2022 #ElectionNight
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Frank Schaeffer
@FSchaeffer06
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13m
Replying to
@VanJones68
That’s what everyone missed. A big Red Wave would have signaled to Trump that he was wanted. The GOP better really think before they hand him the keys to 2024. DeSantis/Youngkin might be the best ticket to bring the GOP back to the center. Democrats should do the same – no Biden.
Frank Schaeffer
@FSchaeffer06
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17m
Replying to
@VanJones68
The real referendum tonight wasn’t on Biden and I say this as a registered Republican who as voted both sides of the aisle. Tonight was a referendum on Trump running again. Inflation, record high gas prices & in the end voters cared more about showing Trump they don’t want him.