My official predictions just over one week out from the Midterms…
Senate Races
AK: Lisa Murkowski(R/I-Incumbent) 53-47 after RCV
AZ: Mark Kelly(D-Incumbent) 50-47
CO: Michael Bennet(D-Incumbent) 52-42
FL: Marco Rubio(R-Incumbent) 52-47
GA: Raphael Warnock(D-Incumbent) 51-48
IN: Todd Young(R-Incumbent) 50-43
IA: Chuck Grassley(R-Incumbent) 51-48
KS: Jerry Moran(R-Incumbent) 54-44
NH: Maggie Hassan(D-Incumbent) 52-45
NV: CCM(D-Incumbent) 49-47
NC: Cheri Beasley(D) 49-48
OH: Tim Ryan(D) 50-48
PA: John Fetterman(D) 51-48
SC: Tim Scott(R-Incumbent) 55-43
UT: Mike Lee(R-Incumbent) 52-48
WI: Mandela Barnes(D) 50-49
D’s net 4 seats
Governor’s Races
AK: Mike Dunleavy(R-Incumbent) 52-48 after RCV
AZ: Katie Hobbs(D) 49-48
CT: Ned Lamont(D-Incumbent) 56-43
FL: Ron DeSantis(R-Incumbent) 54-44
GA: Brian Kemp(R-Incumbent) 52-47
KS: Laura Kelly(D-Incumbent) 50-48
ME: Janet Mills(D-Incumbent) 53-43, no RCV needed
MD: Wes Moore(D) 63-34
MA: Maura Healey(D) 59-39
MI: Gretchen Whitmer(D-Incumbent) 52-46
MN: Tim Walz(D-Incumbent) 54-44
NV: Steve Sisolak(D-Incumbent) 48-48, probably the difference of a few hundred votes
NM: MLG(D-Incumbent) 53-44
NY: Kathy Hochul(D-Incumbent) 53-45
OH: Mike DeWine(R-Incumbent) 57-41
OK: Joy Hofmeister(D) 50-48
OR: Tina Kotek(D) 48-45
PA: Josh Shapiro(D) 55-43
SC: Henry McMaster(R-Incumbent) 51-48
SD: Kristi Noem(R-Incumbent) 53-45
TX: Greg Abbott(R-Incumbent) 53-46
WI: Tony Evers(D-Incumbent) 51-48
D’s net 4 Governorships
US House
GOP House gains: AZ-2(O’Halleran), CO-8(New Seat), FL-2(Member on Member face off between D-Lawson and R-Dunn, no impact on net averages), FL-4(New Seat) FL-7(Murphy, Open Seat), FL-13(Crist, Open Seat), FL-15(New Seat), GA-6(formerly McBath), IN-1(Mrvan), OR-5(Schrader, defeated in Primary), RI-2(Langevin, Open Seat), TX-15(formerly Gonzalez), TX-28(Cuellar), WI-3(Kind, Open Seat)
Dem House Gains: AZ-1(Schwiekert), CA-3(formerly McClintock), CA-22(Valado), CA-27(Garcia), CA-40(Kim), CA-41(Calvert), CA-45(Steel), CO-3(Boebert), FL-27(Salazar), IA-2(Hinson), MI-3(Meijer, defeated in Primary), MI-10(New Seat), MT-1(New Seat, Zinke de facto Incumbent), NE-2(Bacon), NM-2(Harrell), NY-1(Zeldin, Open Seat), NY-22(Katko, Open Seat), NC-13(New Seat), NC-14(New Seat), OH-1(Chabot), PA-1(Fitzpatrick), PA-10(Perry), WA-3(Herrera-Beutler, defeated in Primary)
D’s net 11 seats
Having done deep dives into the various states, I have a more sanguine view of things than do most forecasters, who are by and large defaulting to the banner of Republican triumphalism. There’s a LOT of stuff at play beyond the economic issues, the sputtering back to life of this post-Pandemic economy, and this promises to be a Midterm more like ’98/’02 in terms of bucking orthodoxy….
SE @ Politicaldog101
Republicans gain 20-30 seats in the House and end up with 52-53 in the Senate.
Rhode Island 2nd CD (Jas Langevin, D, retiring) – very likely former Cranston mayor Allen Fung (R), who lost two Governors’ campaigns to Gina Raimondo, but has a much stronger image than Gen. Treasurer Seth Magaziner. Loads of outside advertising poured into this race.
RI Governor — Incumbent Gov. Dan McKee (D), a former mayor of Cumberland, RI, who was independently-elected Lt Gov in 2014 & 2018 as Gina Raimondo won, and then rose to the Governorship in early 2021, as Gov. Raimondo became Pres. Biden ’sSec. of Commerce. McKee exudes comfortable (if unimaginative) Rhode Island vibes, while his Republican opponent, Ashley Kalus, is new to the state and to politics but spent boatloads of her own money for TV commercials.
Mass. Gov. (Charlie Baker, popular but term-limited Republican, retiring) — Commonwealth Atty-Gen. Maura Healey (D) over diehard reactionary Geoff Diehl (R).
New Hampshire US Senator: Toss-up between incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan and Trump protégé Don Bolduc (R), whom powerful national Democrats helped to win the GOP primary over a more-moderate Republican. If Bolduc wins and flips the Senate, it will just prove how wrong and dangerous this cynical tactic is (cf. Democrats helping to defeat never-Trumper Peter Meijer in the Michigan GOP primary).
Thnaks DSD!…..
CG predicts a 51-49 Republican Senate (R + 1, with the GOP holding Pa and winning Nevada), a 228-207 GOP House (R+15) and 28-22 R over D Governors (no net change).
https://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/
He, he, he…..
Well CG don’t have to worry about anybody else bothering him here anymore, eh?
Ain’t much talking…..
Again…
I’m fronting Dem’s + 1 to 3. US Senate ….
I’m in line with CG on the House + 15 Republican’s….
I think …..
Fetterman Pa.
Warnock Ga.
Kelly Arz
Hassan Nh