REALLY?
Of course there ARE….
I post polls from Real Clear Politics here….
For those who don’t it?
They present an easy display of daily polls….
But?
They often exclude polls favourable to Democrats….
Fox, Rasmussen and Trafalgar go one way….
Other outfits go the other….
I feature a post below , from Split-Ticket.Org., that is selling an outfit that is trying to use no-partisan polls for next weeks 2022 Midterm races….
Bear in mind media editor’s are going to be llooking for ANYTHING that fits a ‘horse race narritive’….
As of the morning of October 30th, there are two pictures being painted. The first, by nonpartisan public pollsters, is encapsulated in the graph above. It suggests that the November elections are essentially a dead heat, and that if they were held today, the generic ballot would be a virtual tie. The second is by partisan pollsters, and it suggests a more Republican picture; in fact, the average of partisan-affiliated pollsters (Trafalgar, Data For Progress, Navigator Research, Rasmussen Reports, Insider Advantage, and Echelon Insights) over the last week suggests an R+3 year.
These are extremely different forecasts, and there are conflicting signals on who to trust. FiveThirtyEight already has an excellent aggregate that averages all of the polls, but we believe there is also value to be gained in simply excluding all partisan-affiliated pollsters and examining only the nonpartisan ones. That’s why today, with just over a week to go until the midterms, we’re launching our nonpartisan generic ballot average, and our hope is that it will inform you regarding what the best public, nonpartisan pollsters say about the upcoming elections….
…
This is not our forecast, and it is not our model. In fact, due to the reasons mentioned at the beginning of the post, we still find it somewhat hard to believe that Democrats will end up winning the popular vote this cycle, even though our initial launch average suggests the most minor of Democratic leads. We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote, are clear favorites to win the House, and have 50/50 odds of taking back the Senate. Yet some of the best public, nonpartisan pollsters say that Democrats are currently favored in this midterm, so it is something worth monitoring. Are they catching something no other analyst is, or are they simply wrong and on track for a 2020-esque miss again?….
Who cares about the “polls?”
The Democrats are gonna get their butts kicked!
I look for a 20-3o seat Republican majority in the House and a minimum Republican total of 52 Senate seats, maybe more.
It’s all about inflation.Nothing else matters.
At this time a week out my guess remains a 52+
Democrats Majority in the US Senate….
A 10-15 seat Republican Majority in the US House….
The actual polling has Democrats‘ slightly ahead in most of the critical Senate races
I DO also think the Biden will NOT be the Democratic President nominee in 2024….
Nor do i think Trump will be for the Republicans….
Just my view right now….