In a briefing on the airport ramp by Senate Majority Leader Schumer for the President , Schumer told Biden he belives they will hold their Senate majority….
Schumer has access to internal polling…..
Today the NY Times Siena College poll seems to back up Schumer’s feel…..
| Eight days before the election, we have our final* midterm surveys: polls of the four states likeliest to determine control of the Senate. |
| New York Times/Siena College polls |
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| All considered, this is a pretty good set of numbers for Democrats. If they win three of the four Senate seats, they hold the Senate if everywhere else goes as expected. Here, they lead in the magic three of four while remaining highly competitive in the fourth — though it’s very important to caution that, unfortunately, most of this poll was taken before the Pennsylvania Senate debate. |
| There’s also a bit of good news for Republicans: Respondents said they preferred Republicans to control the Senate. Democrats led anyway, presumably because of their distaste for some of the Republican nominees or their affection for Democratic incumbents. As we head down the stretch, Republicans can hope to lure some of these voters to their side. |
| How the polls compare |
| If you compare our polls with the polling averages, they look even better for Democrats. Consider the current FiveThirtyEight averages: |
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| There is a twist: Although our polls may look better for Democrats than the average, they look about the same as the other traditional polls that used to be considered the gold standard in survey research, like ABC/Washington Post, CNN/SSRS, Fox News, NBC, the university survey houses, and so on. |
| In many of these states, our surveys are the first such poll in weeks. Consider the last such polls in the four states, and how much better they look for Democrats than the average — and how similar they look to our survey: |
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| The absence of surveys from reputable pollsters is remarkable. The drought is partly because of rising costs — our October national survey was eight times more expensive than our final polls in 2016, on a per-interview basis. But it’s also because of a crisis of confidence among the traditional pollsters — Times/Siena included — who don’t have a great explanation for the poor results in 2020 and are understandably treading a little lightly. |
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