David Wasserman over at NBC is using Cook analysis and views of things as say that a “Red Wave’ that was talked about a while ago is dissipating…
He thinks things may come down to just 6 House races…..
Republicans need to pick up at least five seats to take back the House in the midterm elections, and three structural advantages have made them favorites all along: redistricting, Democratic retirements and candidate recruitment.
But as the abortion issue and a renewed focus on former President Donald Trump have awakened and energized Democratic voters, the fight for the House has become increasingly competitive.
Those structural factors once looked like a small component of potential big gains for the GOP in a “red wave” scenario. Now, they look like a valuable insurance policy for Republicans in a fluid political environment, without which House control might be a toss-up….
At a time when both parties’ bases are energized and independent voters are torn between Democrats’ warnings on abortion and Republicans’ overtures on inflation, crime and immigration, the House is far from a foregone conclusion.
To wrest back the majority, Republicans will need to win at least nine districts Biden carried in 2020 — including some held by their own vulnerable incumbents.
And it’s still possible Democrats could buck the historical trend of large losses for the president’s party in the midterm elections.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter currently rates 212 races as at least leaning toward Republicans, 192 races as at least leaning toward Democrats and 31 toss-ups.
In other words, the House’s fate will come down to a very narrow cross-section of the country. Here’s a breakdown of the six types of competitive races to watch….