Dreams of a Republican House wave seem to be evaporating….
Donald Trump’s woe’s ain’t helping ‘his’ party…..
Republican strategists express optimism that the Inflation Reduction Act and President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan will help them shift the spotlight away from abortion and Donald Trump and back onto Democrats’ spending measures and inflation. But as we wrote in our new House overview, a post-Dobbs spike in Democratic voter enthusiasm could rein in GOP gains, allowing Democrats in bluer seats to breathe a bit easier. This week, we’re moving four suburban Democratic-held seats into safer categories. Notably, we’ve shifted Rep. Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) and New York’s open 3rd CD from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. We’re also moving our November rating for Alaska’s At Large CD from Likely Republican to Toss Up on the heels of Democrat Mary Peltola’s ranked-choice upset of Republican Sarah Palin in the August 16 special election.
More behind a paywall….
“Democrats are entering the homestretch before November’s election in better shape than earlier this year, boosted by gains among independent voters, improved views of President Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters,” a Wall Street Journal poll shows.
“Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans, 47% to 44%, when voters are asked which party they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today, a lead that is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Republicans had a five-point advantage in March.”
“The Democratic gains come from increased support among independents, women and younger voters. Black and Hispanic voters, who have traditionally favored Democrats heavily, are also more solidly supportive of the party than they were earlier this year.”
“Top Republicans’ biggest private fear — that November’s midterms will turn on public opinion about former President Trump, not inflation and crime — is unfolding across the political landscape,” Axios reports.
“Trump is dominating the news, picking Trump-like candidates in primaries — and shaping the views and rhetoric of elected officials, and those hoping to become one.”
“That’s why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is telling people his party is blowing a golden opportunity to win the Senate. It’s also why Republicans no longer feel so confident of a landslide in the House.”
Karl Rove: “This is shifting the midterms from being a referendum on Mr. Biden’s failures to a comparison between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, which diminishes the Republican advantage.”