Republicans will turn out….
The people in the middle probably will make the difference….
We do NOT know if the abortion issue will overrun the economic one….
We do not know if Trump’s legal problems will help or hurt things….
But the piece linked below IS a warning against Biden and Democrats emracing progressives to much, whichg Biden has heeded….
Commenting on the August inflation numbers Tuesday, the best President Joe Biden could do to buck up the American people was to tell them, “This month, we saw some price increases slow from the month before at the grocery store.”
He didn’t say that prices are going down. No, Biden’s statement could only make the weak-tea case that some price increases are slowing. And that is the core problem the Democrats face in November. Inflation is eating family budgets alive.
But so much of what we hear from the media and political pundits isn’t focused on the economy. Instead, political consultants and ad makers in both parties drive hot-button issues that appeal to their respective bases in the belief that winning is all about motivating and turning out the base.
Anyone who studies election results in depth understands a couple of key points. First, the base will turn out. It always does in both parties. Second, elections are won in the middle….
Biden beat Trump because he won the political middle by a decisive margin. All of which makes his decision to focus on Democratic base issues as president a real conundrum. His liberal legislative agenda, which has ignored if not exacerbated the top issue of the economy, has been a huge negative with the very independents who put him over the top.
He started off in a good position, as most newly elected presidents do. In the February 2021 Winning the Issues survey (WTI), 48 percent of independents approved of the job he was doing and 30 percent disapproved. That has now flipped dramatically….
If history is a good predictor, independents, not the two bases, will determine which party comes out the winner on Nov. 8…
The author of the linked piece IS a Republican Congressional advisor….