Results wasn’t so bad at all for Democrats…..
Red Wave Looks More Like a Ripple
Cook Political Report: “That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall.”
“Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in. That’s roughly the same margin President Biden had carried the seat by in 2020. The result shouldn’t be shocking, considering Democrats had outperformed in other recent specials in NE-01 and MN-01. But Molinaro, regarded as a pragmatic executive of blue-leaning Dutchess County, had led in multiple polls throughout the race. Ryan, the younger Ulster County executive and decorated Army veteran, prevailed after a late push to make abortion rights the centerpiece of the campaign.”
“What should be most worrying for Republicans is that NY-19 is the kind of district they need to win to have any chance of rolling up big numbers in November. With few Democrats sitting in Trump districts, Republicans’ success depends on picking off Democrats in CD’s Biden carried by six points or less. Not that long ago, that looked feasible.”
….
Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats
In your typical midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president, you’d expect Republicans to be flying high. But the evidence is mounting that the national political environment right now actually leans toward Democrats.
On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election for New York’s swingy 19th Congressional District by 2 percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent.1 At the same time, Republican Joe Sempolinski defeated Democrat Max Della Pia by a closer-than-expected margin of 7 points in the special election for New York’s solid-red 23rd District. On their own, these elections could be dismissed as flukes, chalked up to local factors or particularly strong or weak candidates. But given how these two elections are part of a larger pattern of good results for Democrats over the last two months, they suddenly look a lot more like signal than noise….
…
In your typical midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president, you’d expect Republicans to be flying high. But the evidence is mounting that the national political environment right now actually leans toward Democrats.
On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election for New York’s swingy 19th Congressional District by 2 percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent.1 At the same time, Republican Joe Sempolinski defeated Democrat Max Della Pia by a closer-than-expected margin of 7 points in the special election for New York’s solid-red 23rd District. On their own, these elections could be dismissed as flukes, chalked up to local factors or particularly strong or weak candidates. But given how these two elections are part of a larger pattern of good results for Democrats over the last two months, they suddenly look a lot more like signal than noise…
…
That all changed, though, starting in late June — immediately after the Supreme Court issued its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, overturning the constitutional right to abortion. There have been four first-past-the-post special House elections since that decision, and Democrats have outperformed their expected margins in those elections by an average of 9 points….
…
New York’s Canary in a Coal Mine
Politico: “It would have been easy to write Nebraska off as a fluke, after Democrats ran better than expected in a House race there last month. But then came Minnesota, where Democrats again beat expectations. And then, in New York on Tuesday, the dam broke.”
“It would have been a victory for Democrats if they’d even kept it close. Instead, Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, but that would have appeared to favor Republicans in a normal midterm climate.”
“Overall, on the last major primary night of the year, the winds appeared to be shifting in Democrats’ favor.”
Said one GOP strategist as results came in: “Well, shit.”