This from Five Thgirty Eight……
If there’s one thing we’ve learned since March 2020, it’s that pandemics are all about hard decisions. It’s hard to keep track of the information that helps us make those choices — let alone notice or remember when new science and expert recommendations come along. At FiveThirtyEight, we want to help. We’ve read the science and have come up with broad assumptions you can make based on where the evidence is. When the science changes, so will the assumptions: We’ll be updating this page regularly as new research is published.
We think these assumptions will help you more easily make decisions for yourself and your family. (But do let us know if there are risk-assessment questions you think we’re leaving out.) We want this tool to be something that helps take the stress out of decision-making so that you can worry more about the best way to live and less about the virus.
What test should I take if I’ve been exposed to COVID-19, and when?
WHAT YOU CAN ASSUME
Instant at-home tests and PCR tests can both be useful and continue to be effective at identifying cases of omicron-variant illness. PCR tests are becoming harder to get, especially if you are uninsured, though you can get eight free instant tests through the mail. But it matters when you’re using them and what you’re trying to do, and omicron should change some of your testing procedures.
WHY WE MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION
- The instant at-home tests are rated as less sensitive overall.
- The instant at-home tests are about as sensitive as PCR tests for the time period when an infected person is most likely to be contagious.
- If you choose at-home tests, you should test more than once.
- The research on whether antigen tests remain as sensitive to omicron as they were to earlier strains is mixed. It’s worth continuing to use them, but you should assume a possibility that false negatives are more likely.
How long do I have to quarantine if I’ve been in contact with someone who has COVID-19? And what do I do if I am sick?
WHAT YOU CAN ASSUME
The CDC shortened the length of its recommended quarantine on Dec. 27 from 10 days past the point of exposure to five if you are not vaccinated or if you received your primary vaccination a while ago (i.e., more than six months ago for an mRNA vaccine, or more than two months ago for Johnson & Johnson) and have not received your booster. Anyone who has received their booster, whose primary vaccination happened within two or six months (depending on vaccine type) or who has had a documented case of COVID-19 in the last 90 days doesn’t need to quarantine after being exposed to an infected person. The agency shortened its recommended self-isolation period for those who test positive as well. They also have a new app on their website to calculate the timing of quarantine, isolation and testing for you, based on a series of questions.
WHY WE MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION
- Recommended isolation after a positive test is shorter now, but that doesn’t mean we know that you, personally, are infectious for a shorter period of time.
- Testing and masking are more critical under the new quarantine guidelines.
- The new, shorter quarantine and isolation guidelines have a scientific basis — but they also seem to be based on economic and political demands.
- If you test positive — and are at high risk of severe illness — there are medications you can take that have been shown to improve outcomes. But you will have to move quickly.
Do masks protect you and others from COVID-19?
WHAT YOU CAN ASSUME
They do. There’s also a growing body of evidence suggesting that mandates — which take a community-wide approach to reducing spread of disease in the community — effectively reduce transmission, hospitalizations and death in communities where they are implemented.
WHY WE MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION
- Masking reduces the spread of COVID, especially in places where more people are masking, which is why mandates within schools, cities, counties and states matter.
- CDC masking guidelines no longer reflect local transmission rates — they are focused more on hospitalizations.
- Masks still work, even if you’re the only one using them.
- There’s no evidence that mask-wearing is broadly harming children’s development.
- Your cloth mask is not as effective as you’d like it to be.
- You can get multiple reuses out of N95 and KN95 masks.